World Energy Outlook 2006

markets is significantly lower in the Alternative Policy Scenario, the call on
exporters’ gas is reduced. Most of the projected rise in global output still occurs
in the Middle East, Africa and Russia, though the amount of the increase is
significantly lower. Their combined production grows from 1 050 bcm in 2004
to 1 685 bcm in 2030, only 60%, compared with the 106% observed in the
Reference Scenario. Gas production in OECD countries rises marginally from
1 123 bcm in 2004 to 1 231 bcm in 2030 – the same increase as in the
Reference Scenario.
Inter-regional gas trade grows more slowly in the Alternative Policy Scenario.
It totals 749 bcm in 2030, or 18% of world production, against 936 bcm
(20%) in the Reference Scenario. All the major net importing regions need
more imports in 2030 than now, but – with the exception of China –
significantly less than required in the Reference Scenario (Figure 7.8).
bcm
600
400
200
Figure 7.8: Natural Gas Imports in Selected Importing Regions
in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios
0
United States European Union Japan China
2004 Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Policy Scenario 2030
Coal Markets
Demand
New policies reduce the growth in demand for coal more than any other fuel
in the Alternative Policy Scenario. By 2030, global coal demand is 24% higher
than today, reaching 6 900 million tonnes, but this represents a fall of around
one-fifth from the Reference Scenario. More than three-quarters of this
reduction is due to lower coal consumption in the power sector. The savings in
184 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007