World Energy Outlook 2006

Reference Scenario: Developing Countries
Electricity generation (TWh) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004-
2015 2030
Total generation 2 321 5 754 10 749 17 001 100 100 100 5.8 4.3
Coal 917 2 753 5 659 8 979 48 53 53 6.8 4.7
Oil 366 580 670 616 10 6 4 1.3 0.2
Gas 257 983 1 955 3 389 17 18 20 6.4 4.9
Nuclear 57 142 322 523 2 3 3 7.7 5.1
Hydro 709 1 239 1 928 2 827 22 18 17 4.1 3.2
Renewables (excluding hydro) 14 56 215 668 1 2 4 13.0 10.0
Biomass and waste 7 29 113 298 1 1 2 13.1 9.4
Wind 0 5 64 263 0 1 2 26.2 16.5
Geothermal 8 20 36 69 0 0 0 5.5 4.9
Solar 0 2 2 38 0 0 0 0.6 11.9
Tide and wave 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 – –
Capacity (GW) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.)
2004 2015 2030 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004-
2015 2030
Total capacity 1 289 2 369 3 775 100 100 100 5.7 4.2
Coal 470 978 1 550 36 41 41 6.9 4.7
Oil 189 227 223 15 10 6 1.7 0.6
Gas 265 555 992 21 23 26 7.0 5.2
Nuclear 18 41 66 1 2 2 7.5 5.0
Hydro 334 521 771 26 22 20 4.1 3.3
of which pumped storage 0 0 0 0 0 0 – –
Renewables (excluding hydro) 13 47 173 1 2 5 12.5 10.5
Biomass and waste 5 18 47 0 1 1 12.8 9.1
Wind 4 22 95 0 1 3 16.4 12.7
Geothermal 3 5 10 0 0 0 5.6 4.8
Solar 1 1 21 0 0 1 0.0 13.5
Tide and wave 0 0 0 0 0 0 – –
CO2 emissions (Mt) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004-
2015 2030
Total CO2 emissions 5 317 10 171 15 396 21 111 100 100 100 3.8 2.8
Coal 2 871 5 508 8 565 11 453 54 56 54 4.1 2.9
Oil 1 938 3 392 4 688 6 349 33 30 30 3.0 2.4
Gas
Power generation
507 1 271 2 143 3 310 12 14 16 4.9 3.7
and heat plants 1 535 4 395 7 133 10 153 100 100 100 4.5 3.3
Coal 1 050 3 378 5 571 7 944 77 78 78 4.7 3.3
Oil 319 472 539 496 11 8 5 1.2 0.2
Gas 167 545 1 024 1 713 12 14 17 5.9 4.5
Total final consumption 3 479 5 226 7 541 10 073 100 100 100 3.4 2.6
Coal 1 760 2 004 2 844 3 337 38 38 33 3.2 2.0
Oil 1 491 2 697 3 857 5 503 52 51 55 3.3 2.8
of which transport 740 1 435 2 066 3 233 27 27 32 3.4 3.2
Gas 228 525 841 1 234 10 11 12 4.4 3.3
Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 513
© OECD/IEA, 2007
A