World Energy Outlook 2006

Table 14.6: Global Potential Biomass Energy Supply to 2050
Biomass category Main assumptions Potential bioand
remarks energy supply
in 2050 in Mtoe
Bioenergy farming Potential land surplus: 0-4 Gha 0 - 16 700
on current agricultural (average: 1-2 Gha). A large surplus (average: 2 400
land requires adoption of intensive
agricultural production systems.
Higher yields are more likely where
soil quality is good. Productivity of
8-12 dry tonnes/ha/year assumed.*
– 7 200)
Bioenergy production Maximum land surface of 1.7 Gha 1 400 – 3 600
on marginal land could be used. Low productivity
of 2-5 dry tonnes/ha/year assumed*
Poor economics or competition with
food production could limit availability.
Residues from Potential depends on yields and total 400 – 1 700
agriculture agricultural land area in use as well
as type of production system
(extensive production systems require
re-use of residues to maintain soil fertility).
Forest residues The sustainable energy potential
of the world’s forests is uncertain.
Low value corresponds to sustainable
forest management and high value to
technical potential. Estimates include
processing residues.
700 – 3 600
Dung Low estimate based on global current
use, high estimate on technical potential.
Collection rates are uncertain.
100 – 1 300
Organic wastes Estimates dependent on assumed rates 100 – 1 000
of economic development and consumption
of biomass generally. Higher values correspond
to more intensive use of biomass.
Total Low estimate based on no land available 1 000 – 26 200
for energy farming and use of residues (average: 6 000
only. High estimate based on intensive – 11 900)
agriculture concentrated on high-quality soils.
* Heat content of 19 GJ/tonne dry matter is assumed.
Sources: IEA analysis based on Hamelinck and Faaij et al. (2005), Smeets et al. (2006) and Hoogwijk et al. (2005).
Chapter 14 - The Outlook for Biofuels
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