World Energy Outlook 2006

Figure 13.15: World Uranium Production Capability and Reactor Requirements
in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios (tonnes per year)
thousand tonnes of uranium per year
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
2005
2010 2015 2020 2025
Uranium demand in Reference Scenario
Uranium demand in Alternative Policy Scenario
Uranium production capability: existing and committed centres
Uranium production capability: existing, committed, planned
and prospective centres
Source: IEA calculations for uranium demand and NEA/IAEA (2006) for production capability.
2030
have to be met increasingly from primary production. Despite the
significant additions reported here, primary production capability will
require still further expansion, either at existing production centres or at
new ones.
Uranium Prices and Investment in Exploration and
Production
The overproduction of uranium, which lasted through the 1990s,
combined with the availability of secondary sources, resulted in a fall in
uranium prices from the early 1980s. The price of uranium rebounded
from historic lows in 2001 to levels not seen since the 1980s. The spot
price of uranium oxide (uranium ore) increased sixfold, from $13.1 per kg
in January 2001 to $94.8 in May 2006 (Figure 13.16). The reasons for the
rise include production problems at existing mines in Australia and
Canada, uncertainties concerning continued operation of some mines,
rising expectations of a nuclear renaissance, an increasing awareness that
secondary sources are declining in availability, speculative elements in the
Chapter 13 - Prospects for Nuclear Power 381
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