World Energy Outlook 2006

Reference Scenario: World
Electricity generation (TWh) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004-
2015 2030
Total generation 11 731 17 408 24 816 33 750 100 100 100 3.3 2.6
Coal 4 478 6 917 10 609 14 703 40 43 44 4.0 2.9
Oil 1 313 1 161 1 195 940 7 5 3 0.3 –0.8
Gas 1 613 3 412 5 236 7 790 20 21 23 4.0 3.2
Nuclear 2 013 2 740 3 108 3 304 16 13 10 1.2 0.7
Hydro 2 148 2 809 3 682 4 749 16 15 14 2.5 2.0
Renewables (excluding hydro) 166 369 986 2 264 2 4 7 9.3 7.2
Biomass and waste 125 227 422 805 1 2 2 5.8 5.0
Wind 4 82 433 1 132 0 2 3 16.3 10.6
Geothermal 36 56 100 174 0 0 1 5.5 4.5
Solar 1 4 30 142 0 0 0 19.7 14.5
Tide and wave 1 1 1 12 0 0 0 9.1 12.4
Capacity (GW) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.)
2004 2015 2030 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004-
2015 2030
Total capacity 4 054 5 652 7 875 100 100 100 3.1 2.6
Coal 1 235 1 826 2 565 30 32 33 3.6 2.9
Oil 453 480 378 11 8 5 0.5 –0.7
Gas 1 055 1 604 2 468 26 28 31 3.9 3.3
Nuclear 364 391 416 9 7 5 0.7 0.5
Hydro 851 1 079 1 373 21 19 17 2.2 1.9
of which pumped storage 79 79 79 2 1 1 0.0 0.0
Renewables (excluding hydro) 96 271 674 2 5 9 9.9 7.8
Biomass and waste 36 68 129 1 1 2 5.9 5.0
Wind 48 168 430 1 3 5 12.1 8.8
Geothermal 8 15 25 0 0 0 5.4 4.4
Solar 4 20 87 0 0 1 16.4 13.0
Tide and wave 0 0 3 0 0 0 4.0 9.9
CO2 emissions (Mt) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004-
2015 2030
Total CO2 emissions 20 463 26 079 33 333 40 420 100 100 100 2.3 1.7
Coal 8 081 10 625 14 217 17 293 41 43 43 2.7 1.9
Oil
of which international
8 561 10 199 12 239 14 334 39 37 35 1.7 1.3
marine bunkers 363 521 569 622 2 2 2 0.8 0.7
Gas
Power generation
3 820 5 254 6 877 8 793 20 21 22 2.5 2.0
and heat plants 6 955 10 587 14 209 17 680 100 100 100 2.7 2.0
Coal 4 764 7 600 10 353 12 946 72 73 73 2.9 2.1
Oil 1 053 934 960 762 9 7 4 0.3 –0.8
Gas 1 138 2 054 2 896 3 972 19 20 22 3.2 2.6
Total final consumption 12 047 13 668 17 017 20 324 100 100 100 2.0 1.5
Coal 3 188 2 817 3 636 4 102 21 21 20 2.3 1.5
Oil 6 595 8 091 9 972 12 124 59 59 60 1.9 1.6
of which transport 3 758 5 112 6 328 7 993 37 37 39 2.0 1.7
Gas 2 264 2 760 3 409 4 098 20 20 20 1.9 1.5
Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 493
© OECD/IEA, 2007
A