World Energy Outlook 2006

Alternative Policy Scenario: Transition Economies
Electricity generation (TWh) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total generation 1 840 1 536 1 821 2 093 1.6 1.2 –3.2 –8.3
Coal 501 322 373 269 1.3 –0.7 –7.1 –19.1
Oil 252 54 43 24 –2.1 –3.1 –0.8 –13.7
Gas 586 575 723 821 2.1 1.4 –5.6 –22.2
Nuclear 231 279 317 477 1.2 2.1 1.8 19.3
Hydro 269 303 342 415 1.1 1.2 0.1 3.0
Renewables (excluding hydro) 0 3 24 87 20.7 13.8 28.7 39.8
Biomass and waste 0 2 8 35 12.8 11.6 175.3 55.6
Wind 0 0 11 40 54.5 26.2 4.3 42.5
Geothermal 0 0 5 11 25.3 13.5 – –
Solar 0 1 0 1 –13.3 2.3 – 35.6
Tide and wave 0 0 0 0 – – – 500.0
Capacity (GW) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total capacity 405 443 505 0.8 0.9 –2.9 –8.9
Coal 109 98 71 –1.0 –1.6 –1.4 –17.8
Oil 30 27 15 –0.6 –2.6 –0.2 –2.2
Gas 137 170 214 2.0 1.7 –7.2 –20.0
Nuclear 40 43 64 0.5 1.8 1.6 19.0
Hydro 88 100 119 1.1 1.1 0.1 2.7
of which pumped storage 0 0 0 – – – –
Renewables (excluding hydro) 1 6 22 22.1 14.4 17.2 41.6
Biomass and waste 0 1 6 10.6 10.3 117.1 53.1
Wind 0 4 14 35.2 19.3 3.4 44.8
Geothermal 0 1 2 24.2 13.1 – –2.6
Solar 0 0 1 49.5 28.8 – 35.6
Tide and wave 0 0 0 – – – 531.6
CO2 emissions (Mt) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total CO2 emissions 3 731 2 560 2 842 2 786 1.0 0.3 –4.5 –12.7
Coal 1 109 783 848 705 0.7 –0.4 –4.7 –9.9
Oil 1 230 573 626 649 0.8 0.5 –5.5 –11.7
Gas
Power generation
1 392 1 204 1 368 1 431 1.2 0.7 –4.0 –14.5
and heat plants 1 515 1 287 1 368 1 197 0.6 –0.3 –5.0 –15.2
Coal 690 557 592 446 0.6 –0.8 –4.9 –8.6
Oil 263 90 75 50 –1.6 –2.2 –0.7 –5.7
Gas 562 641 701 701 0.8 0.3 –5.6 –19.5
Total final consumption 2 015 1 169 1 354 1 446 1.3 0.8 –4.1 –11.0
Coal 416 224 253 256 1.1 0.5 –4.2 –12.1
Oil 908 427 484 516 1.1 0.7 –6.4 –12.6
of which transport 330 232 270 295 1.4 0.9 –8.7 –13.9
Gas 691 518 616 674 1.6 1.0 –2.2 –9.3
Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 545
© OECD/IEA, 2007
A