World Energy Outlook 2006

� Four-fifths of the energy and emissions savings in the BAPS Case come
from three main categories of effort: demand-side policies, fuel
switching to nuclear and renewables in the power sector, and the
introduction of CO 2 capture and storage technology. Almost all the
measures considered also serve to enhance energy security.
Making the Alternative Policy Scenario a Reality
Identifying Policy Priorities
The adoption and implementation of the set of policies and measures
analysed in the Alternative Policy Scenario would be a major step on the road
to a more sustainable global energy system. They would begin to steer the
world onto a markedly different energy path from that depicted in the
Reference Scenario – a path that could lead, well beyond 2030, to a truly
sustainable energy future in which energy supplies are secured and climate
change is arrested. But adoption and implementation of those policies needs
to begin immediately.
A wide range of policies needs to be adopted urgently, including the sensitive
and progressive removal of subsidies that encourage the wasteful use of
energy, more programmes on technology research, development,
demonstration and deployment, and additional economic incentives to
encourage energy users and producers to switch to low-carbon technologies.
To accelerate energy-efficiency gains, governments need to enforce standards
and implement new regulatory and legislative measures to improve demandside
management, building codes, industrial energy efficiency and new
vehicle fuel economy. Any delays would compound the problems associated
with rising energy use and emissions by extending the legacy of inefficient
energy systems, increasing the costs of meeting targets and generating
greenhouse-gas emissions that will reside in the atmosphere for decades or
centuries to come.
To take the example of CO 2 emissions, cumulative energy-related emissions
in the Reference Scenario over the period 2005-2030 are 890 Gt. The
policies and measures of the Alternative Policy Scenario would avoid the
release into the atmosphere of some 70 Gt, or 8% of CO 2 emissions in the
Reference Scenario. Each year of delay in implementing the assumed policies
would have a disproportionately large effect. A ten-year delay, for example,
with implementation starting only in 2015, would reduce emissions much
less by 2030. As a result, the saving in cumulative emissions in 2005-2030
would be only 2%, compared to the Reference Scenario (Figure 10.1).
250 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007