World Energy Outlook 2006

emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using advanced aircraft scheduling techniques
may prove possible to avoid a significant proportion of the effects associated
with contrails and associated cirrus clouds.
Consumption in the United States is currently responsible for over one-third
of global CO 2 aviation emissions. In the Reference Scenario, aviation CO 2
emissions almost double over the Outlook period, from 685 Mt in 2004 to
1 305 Mt in 2030. In the Alternative Policy Scenario, they rise to 1 206 Mt
– 8% lower (Figure 9.14). The share of aviation in total global energy-related
CO 2 emissions is nonetheless higher in the Alternative Policy Scenario, because
emissions from other sectors fall more by comparison with the Reference
Scenario, reflecting the wider range of policies under consideration to mitigate
CO 2 emissions in those sectors.
Mt of CO 2
1 500
1 250
1 000
750
500
Figure 9.14: World Aviation CO 2 Emissions (Mt)
250
0%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Reference Scenario
Alternative Policy Scenario
Share of aviation in global CO 2 emissions in the Alternative
Policy Scenario (right axis)
Note: In line with accepted practice, the regional totals for CO 2 emissions shown in the tables in Annex A do
not include CO 2 emissions from international aviation.
Industry
Summary of Results
Global industrial energy demand is 337 Mtoe, or 9%, lower in 2030 in the
Alternative Policy Scenario than in the Reference Scenario (Table 9.7).
Reduced consumption of coal accounts for 38% of total savings, while
electricity accounts for 27%, oil for 23% and gas for 12%. Improved efficiency
234 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
4%
3%
2%
1%
© OECD/IEA, 2007