World Energy Outlook 2006

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Mtoe Table 16.6: Change in Total Final Consumption in the Alternative Policy Scenario* in 2030 Industry Transport Residential Services Total Coal –12% 0 0 0 –12% Oil –11% –19% –14% –12% –15% Gas –8% –2% 0% 0% –7% Electricity –14% 0% –19% –16% –15% Biomass and waste –7% 13% –7% –6% –2% Other renewables 0 0 77% 0 76% Total –10% –12% –12% –15% –11% * Compared with the Reference Scenario. Figure 16.6: Residential and Services Energy Demand in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2004 2015 Reference Scenario 2015 Alternative Policy Scenario 2030 Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Policy Scenario Oil Electricity Renewables Gas from faster improvements in energy efficiency in the transport and industry sectors. Energy savings amount to around 12.5 Mtoe in each of these sectors. The 6-Mtoe reduction in residential and services energy demand is substantial, given the efficiency improvements which are already incorporated Chapter 16 - Focus on Brazil 463 16
into the Reference Scenario. End-use oil demand sees the greatest decline, from 131 Mtoe in 2030 in the Reference Scenario to 111 Mtoe in the Alternative Policy Scenario. Final demand for biomass and waste declines slightly, by 2 Mtoe, mostly because of energy efficiency improvements in the industry sector. Although demand for biofuels for transport is higher, energy savings in the use of biomass for industry and residential use offset this expansion. Transport demand is 12.6 Mtoe lower than in the Reference Scenario. Oil demand in the transport sector grows by 1.5% per year, much slower than in the Reference Scenario, while demand for biofuels grows more rapidly, at 5.1% per year. By 2030, biofuels for transport account for 30% of road transport fuel demand. Policies aimed at increasing the efficiency of the vehicle fleet also lower transport demand growth in the Alternative Policy Scenario. Demand in the industry sector in the Alternative Policy Scenario grows by 1.5% per year on average. By 2030, it is 10% lower than in the Reference Scenario. The biggest drop is in electricity demand, thanks to the increased efficiencies of motors. Gas demand is only slightly lower in the Alternative Policy Scenario. Use of biomass is 7% less, but its share stays at about 35%. Energy demand in the residential and services sector in the Alternative Policy Scenario grows by 1.5% per year on average and is 10% less in 2030 compared with the Reference Scenario (Figure 16.6). Overall percentage savings in this sector are less than savings in both the residential and services sectors because there is very little change in energy demand in the agricultural sector. Electricity demand is lower, growing by only 1.9% per year, as a result of stronger policies to promote energy-efficient lighting and the enforcement of tougher standards for appliances. Outlook for Supply Oil Resources and Reserves Brazil is the world’s 15th-largest oil producer, with proven reserves of 11.2 billion barrels (Oil and Gas Journal, 2005). 6 Oil reserves increased nearly eightfold from 1980 to 2005. Brazil has made impressive technological advances in deep-water exploration and production, with several recent discoveries of large fields containing over one billion barrels of oil equivalent. Deep-water and ultra-deep-water exploration have yielded significant discoveries (Figure 16.7). There are still vast unexplored areas, which have high potential for new discoveries. So far, drilling concessions have been offered for less than 7% of the promising areas. The offshore basins of Espirito Santo, Campos and Santos, where large discoveries have been made, have been the main focus of interest. 6. Petrobras reported reserves of 12.3 billion barrels in December 2005. 464 World Energy Outlook 2006 - FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Will the investment come? Meeting t
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World primary energy demand in 2030
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above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Larger energy savings would require
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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would be needed (over and above tho
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Government Policies and Measures As
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over the projection period, as it d
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for heating, and faster improvement
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Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
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dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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is assumed that available end-use t
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Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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een revised down and that for coal
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Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
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Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
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Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
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Exploration and development Explora
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China United States Middle East Ind
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illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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far the largest consumer. The econo
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new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
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Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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the Organization of the Petroleum E
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A lack of reliable information on p
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Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
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mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
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Investment Cumulative global invest
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amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
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Environmental policies and regulati
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growth marginally, pushing demand d
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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The long-term rate of increase in G
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cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
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Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
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Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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construction of upstream and downst
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investment is incremental and where
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Demand Global coal use is projected
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Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
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international demand. In contrast,
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Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Consolidation of the mining industr
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� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
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Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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Page 422 and 423: charcoal generates significant empl
Page 424 and 425: Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
Page 426 and 427: 1.3 million people) are due to biom
Page 428 and 429: The effects of exposure to indoor a
Page 430 and 431: Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
Page 432 and 433: poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
Page 434 and 435: Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
Page 436 and 437: In view of their ability to reduce
Page 438 and 439: Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
Page 440 and 441: 50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
Page 442 and 443: The trend worldwide is towards remo
Page 444 and 445: Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
Page 446: The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
Page 449 and 450: $46 billion in the power sector, bu
Page 451 and 452: Administration has increased public
Page 453 and 454: Brazil’s rate of population growt
Page 455 and 456: Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
Page 457 and 458: domestic oil production and increas
Page 459 and 460: Industrial energy demand grows by 1
Page 461 and 462: Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
Page 463: southeast regions of Brazil, which
Page 467 and 468: Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
Page 469 and 470: Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
Page 471 and 472: Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
Page 473 and 474: Production and Imports Gas producti
Page 475 and 476: unit would be located off the coast
Page 477 and 478: This trend is bolstered by strong g
Page 479 and 480: Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
Page 481 and 482: The construction of very large hydr
Page 483 and 484: Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
Page 485 and 486: stronger policies to connect bagass
Page 487 and 488: Investment The cumulative amount of
Page 490 and 491: ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
Page 492 and 493: ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
Page 494 and 495: Reference Scenario: World Electrici
Page 496 and 497: Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
Page 498 and 499: Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
Page 500 and 501: Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 502 and 503: Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
Page 504 and 505: Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
Page 506 and 507: Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
Page 508 and 509: Reference Scenario: European Union
Page 510 and 511: Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
Page 512 and 513: Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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