World Energy Outlook 2006

millions
100
80
60
40
20
0
Figure 9.11: New Vehicle Sales by Region, 2005-2030*
2005 2015 2030
* In both the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios.
OECD Non-OECD
Technologies are available to automakers today which can achieve the vehicle
fuel economy standards assumed in the Alternative Policy Scenario. In
countries where fuel economy regulations have been relatively weak, like the
United States, Canada and non-OECD countries, there is potential for major
efficiency improvements at very low additional costs (see Box 8.5).
Achieving the additional efficiency improvements assumed in the Alternative
Policy Scenario (see Table 9.5) requires improvements in the efficiency
of internal combustion engines (ICEs), advanced vehicle technologies, 6 and a
higher penetration rate of mild7 and full hybrid technologies. Mild hybrids
would need to represent 60% of global new light-duty vehicle sales in 2030
(Figure 9.12) and full hybrids 18% of light-duty vehicle sales. If the fuel
economy improvement potential of the technologies mentioned here was
exploited partly to offer increased power and performance, the share of mild
and full hybrids in the new light-duty vehicle market might actually be higher,
but without further improving the overall energy savings. 8
6. Includes the use of lighter materials, improved aerodynamics and low rolling resistance tyres.
7. The term “mild hybrid” (sometimes called light hybrid) identifies those hybrid configurations in
which there is only one electric motor connected to the ICE, acting as a starter and an alternator at
the same time. Mild hybrids use “idle-off” technology, where the ICE is switched off instead of idling
as a conventional engine would.
8. The technology penetration considered requires a diesel fuel share in 2030 roughly equal to current
levels.
230 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007