World Energy Outlook 2006

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Country Number Installed Gross Share of Number of capacity nuclear nuclear of reactors (GW) electricity power nuclear generation in total operators (TWh) generation (%) OECD 351 308.4 2 333 22.4 68 Belgium 7 5.8 48 55.2 1 Canada 18 12.6 92 14.6 4 Czech Republic 6 3.5 25 29.9 1 Finland 4 2.7 23 33.0 2 France 59 63.1 452 78.5 1 Germany 17 20.3 163 26.3 4 Hungary 4 1.8 14 38.7 1 Japan 56 47.8 293 27.7 10 Republic of Korea 20 16.8 147 37.4 1 Mexico 2 1.3 11 4.6 1 Netherlands 1 0.5 4 4.0 1 Slovak Republic 6 2.4 18 57.5 2 Spain 9 7.6 58 19.5 5 Sweden 10 8.9 72 45.4 3 Switzerland 5 3.2 23 39.1 4 United Kingdom 23 11.9 82 20.4 2 United States 104 98.3 809 18.9 26 Transition economies 54 40.5 274 17.0 7 Armenia 1 0.4 3 42.7 1 Bulgaria 4 2.7 17 39.2 1 Lithuania 1 1.2 10 68.2 1 Romania 1 0.7 5 8.6 1 Russia 31 21.7 149 15.7 1 Slovenia 1 0.7 6 39.6 1 Ukraine 15 13.1 84 45.1 1 Developing countries 38 19.0 135 2.1 11 Argentina 2 0.9 6 6.3 1 Brazil 2 1.9 10 2.2 1 China 9 6.0 50 2.0 5 India 15 3.0 16 2.2 1 Pakistan 2 0.4 2 2.8 1 South Africa 2 1.8 12 5.0 1 Chinese Taipei 6 4.9 38 16.9 1 World 443 367.8 2 742 14.9 86 Sources: IAEA PRIS and IEA databases. Table 13.1: Key Nuclear Statistics, 2005 Chapter 13 - Prospects for Nuclear Power 347 13 © OECD/IEA, 2007
Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear Operators in the World, 2005 Company Country Installed Share of nuclear capacity in total (GW) company capacity Electricité de France (EDF)* France 65.8 50% Rosenergoatom Russia 21.7 100% Exelon United States 17.4 33% Korea Hydro & Nuclear Republic 16.8 97% Power (KHNP) of Korea Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) Japan 16.8 28% NNEGC Energoatom Ukraine 13.1 100% E.ON** Germany 11.1 21% British Energy United Kingdom 9.6 83% Kansai Electric Power Co. (KEPCO) Japan 9.3 25% Entergy United States 9.1 31% * Figures based on total capacity in France and other countries. ** Figures include partial ownership of reactors in Sweden (2.6 GW). Source: Company data. Historical Development The development of commercial nuclear power plants started over half a century ago. Construction of nuclear power plants accelerated after the first oil shock and reached its historical peak in the 1980s (Figure 13.2). About 80% of the current nuclear capacity in the world was built in just two decades, before electricity market deregulation was launched. After the Three Mile Island accident in 1979 in the United States, there were significant delays in the construction of the nuclear power plants that were being built at the time of the accident. There were no nuclear plant orders in the United States after that date and many plans to build new reactors there were cancelled. Following the Chernobyl accident in 1986, several countries imposed restrictions on existing and/or new nuclear power plants. The liberalisation of gas and electricity markets in the OECD during the 1990s, when natural gas prices were low and were expected to remain low, and before carbon-dioxide emissions became a major policy issue, made investment in new nuclear power plants less competitive than investment in the alternatives, particularly gas-fired combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs). Moreover, many countries had excess capacity in that period as a result of overbuild in the previous decade. The economic collapse of the transition 348 World Energy Outlook 2006 - FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS © OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Will the investment come? Meeting t
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World primary energy demand in 2030
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above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Larger energy savings would require
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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would be needed (over and above tho
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Government Policies and Measures As
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over the projection period, as it d
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for heating, and faster improvement
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Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
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dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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is assumed that available end-use t
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Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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een revised down and that for coal
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Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
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Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
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Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
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Exploration and development Explora
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China United States Middle East Ind
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illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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far the largest consumer. The econo
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new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
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Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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the Organization of the Petroleum E
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A lack of reliable information on p
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Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
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mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
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Investment Cumulative global invest
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amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
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Environmental policies and regulati
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growth marginally, pushing demand d
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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The long-term rate of increase in G
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cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
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Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
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Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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construction of upstream and downst
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investment is incremental and where
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Demand Global coal use is projected
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Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
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international demand. In contrast,
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Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Consolidation of the mining industr
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� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
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Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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Page 315 and 316: $0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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Page 325 and 326: Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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Page 331 and 332: Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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Page 343 and 344: The prospects for investment and pr
Page 345 and 346: Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
Page 347: Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Page 355 and 356: Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Page 361 and 362: Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Page 387 and 388: Current Status of Biofuels Producti
Page 389 and 390: Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
Page 391 and 392: Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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Page 395 and 396: Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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