World Energy Outlook 2006

lower cost than in the Reference Scenario. As a result, cleaner technologies are
deployed sooner and more widely than in the Reference Scenario. For example,
the level of production of biofuels reached in 2030 in the Reference Scenario
is achieved eight years earlier in the Alternative Policy Scenario and the number
of hybrid cars on the road in 2030 in the Reference Scenario is reached as early
as 2023 in the Alternative Policy Scenario (Figure 7.1). The rate of decline in
cost of the different technologies varies according to the maturity of the
technology and the rate of transfer to other countries (IEA, 2005a).
Figure 7.1: Years Saved in the Alternative Policy Scenario in Meeting the
Levels of Deployment of the Reference Scenario in 2030
Energy efficiency
in buildings
Wind
Hybrid cars
Biofuels
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
years
In general, the rate of improvement in energy efficiency in the Alternative Policy
Scenario is higher in developing countries and the transition economies than in
OECD countries. This reflects the larger potential for efficiency improvements
in those regions and the fact that additions to the physical capital stock are
expected to be much larger in non-OECD countries than in the OECD. The
rate of efficiency gain varies according to the end-use sector, the efficiency of the
existing capital stock, the existing policy framework and the type and
effectiveness of the policies adopted. Specific assumptions for each sector are
provided in Chapter 9. Improved energy efficiency results in a faster decline in
primary energy intensity – the amount of energy consumed per unit of gross
domestic product. In aggregate, global energy intensity declines at an average
rate of 2.1% per year over 2004-2030 in the Alternative Policy Scenario,
compared with 1.7% in the Reference Scenario and 1.6% from 1990 to 2004.
172 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007