World Energy Outlook 2006

thousand tonnes of uranium
Figure 13.14: Uranium Resources versus Cumulative Uranium Demand
16 000
14 000
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
< $40/kg < $80/kg < $130/kg demand
to 2030
lifetime
demand
RAR* Inferred resources
Undiscovered resources Speculative resources
Cumulative demand in Reference Scenario
Additional demand in Alternative Policy Scenario
*RAR= reasonably assured resources (proven).
Source: IEA calculations using uranium resource data in NEA/IAEA (2006). The calculated cumulative
uranium demand refers to uranium needed for nuclear plants built in the Reference and Alternative Policy
Scenarios until 2030, assuming a 60-year lifetime (but not for plants built after 2030).
built between now and 2030. These requirements amount to just under
2 billion tonnes in the Reference Scenario and 2.2 billion tonnes in the
Alternative Policy Scenario. The cumulative requirements over the lifetime of
these reactors range between 4.2 billion tonnes and 5.1 billion tonnes. In both
scenarios, all demand to 2030 can be met from reasonably assured resources at
a production cost below $80 per kg. Beyond 2030, the additional demand can
still be met, on the basis of current estimates of total uranium resources,
including reasonably assured, inferred and undiscovered resources.
Exploitation of more geologically uncertain “undiscovered” resources could
provide uranium supplies for several hundred years, but this would require
significant exploration and development. The recent increases in
exploration activity, driven by rising uranium prices, can be expected to
result in new discoveries. Moreover, unconventional uranium resources in
phosphates and seawater, as well as alternative fuel cycles based on thorium
– an element much more abundant than uranium – hold promise as
Chapter 13 - Prospects for Nuclear Power 379
13