World Energy Outlook 2006

mb/d
Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oil Imports in Selected Importing Regions
in the Alternative Policy Scenario
10
8
6
4
2
0
2005-
2015
Gas Markets
OECD
2005-
2030
2005-
2015
China
2005-
2030
2005-
2015
India
2005-
2030
Alternative Policy Scenario Savings compared with Reference Scenario
Demand
Primary natural gas consumption is projected to climb to 4 055 bcm in 2030,
at an average annual growth rate of 1.5% – half a percentage point lower than
in the Reference Scenario. In 2030, gas demand is 13% lower. The saving is
about 610 bcm, an amount comparable to the current gas demand of the
United States, the world’s largest gas consumer. At 170 bcm, the saving is also
significant as early as 2015. Global gas demand in the Alternative Policy
Scenario is, nonetheless, 46% higher in 2030 than today. The share of gas in
the global primary energy mix increases marginally, from 21% in 2004 to 22%
in 2030 – one percentage point lower than in the Reference Scenario.
Gas demand continues to rise in all regions throughout the projection period,
except in the United States and Japan, where demand dips slightly between
2015 and 2030. In the United States, demand is significantly lower than in the
Reference Scenario in the power generation sector, mainly due to reduced
electricity demand and a bigger role for nuclear power and renewables, in
industry, where more efficient processes are introduced, and in buildings,
where stricter building codes are applied. In Japan, the increased role of nuclear
power and lower electricity demand are the primary reasons for the downturn
in gas consumption. China actually increases its use of gas compared with the
182 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007