World Energy Outlook 2006

Notwithstanding the rates of growth in national emissions, the gap between
developed and developing countries in emissions per capita remains wide.
OECD per-capita emissions increase slightly from 2004 levels of 11.0 tonnes,
peak around 2010, decrease to 11.2 tonnes in 2015, and then continue to fall
to 10.2 tonnes in 2030. Conversely, emissions in the developing world, starting
in 2004 at 2.1 tonnes per capita, grow steadily, rising to 2.7 tonnes in 2030 –
still a factor of four less. These per-capita differences reflect substantially lower
energy consumption per person. On a CO 2 -intensity basis, they also reflect
both the relative inefficiency of the energy systems in the developing world and
their high reliance on fossil fuels for power.
On an absolute basis, the reduction in CO 2 emissions in the Alternative
Policy Scenario is greatest in countries that emit the most (Figure 7.13).
Thus, China shows the largest reduction from the Reference to the
Alternative Policy Scenario by 2030, with 1.6 Gt, followed by OECD North
America (1.1 Gt) and OECD Europe (0.8 Gt). The smallest emissions
reduction, both in absolute and percentage terms, occurs in the least
developed regions, notably Africa and Latin America.
At the point of use, the largest contributor to avoided CO 2 emissions is
improved end-use efficiency, accounting for nearly two-thirds of total savings
(Figure 7.14). 10 Fuel savings, achieved through more efficient vehicles,
industrial processes and heating applications, contribute 36% in 2030, while
lower electricity demand, from more efficient appliances, industrial motors and
buildings, represents 29%. Switching to less carbon-intensive fossil fuels,
mainly from coal to gas in power generation, and improved supply-side
efficiency account for a further 13%. Increased use of renewables in power
generation and of biofuels in transport account for 12%. Increased reliance on
nuclear is responsible for the remaining 10%.
Looking at the sources of emissions, the biggest contribution to avoided
emissions comes from power generation, where emissions peak towards the end
of the period, and are 3.9 Gt lower in 2030 in the Alternative Policy Scenario
than in the Reference Scenario. This sector alone contributes almost two-thirds
of avoided emissions globally. Emissions savings from this sector result
principally from policies to promote carbon-free power generation, including
policies to encourage nuclear power, and discourage the use of coal. The fastest
annual growth in emissions over the Outlook period occurs in the transport
sector, averaging 1.3%. Savings in this sector in 2030 in the Alternative Policy
Scenario are small relative to other sectors, at 0.9 Gt, because of the limited
10. Curbing CO 2 emissions through energy efficiency policies has, in most cases, significant local air
pollution benefits, as the emissions of other pollutants are reduced. Those “ancillary benefits” are
greater in developing countries, where air quality in big cities is, on average, worse than in the OECD
(Markandya and Rübbelke, 2003).
190 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007