World Energy Outlook 2006

The efficiency of supply-side technologies is also assumed to improve more
quickly in the Alternative Policy Scenario. For example, the faster deployment of
biofuels is expected to bring down their production cost more quickly than in the
Reference Scenario. In the power sector, renewables-based technologies are
assumed to be deployed more widely, the efficiency of thermal plants is assumed
to increase, and transmission and distribution losses are assumed to be reduced.
Global Energy Trends
Primary and Final Energy Mix
In the Alternative Policy Scenario, the implementation of more aggressive policies
and measures significantly curbs the growth in total primary and final energy
demand. Primary demand reaches 15 405 Mtoe in 2030 – a reduction of about
10%, or 1 690 Mtoe, relative to the Reference Scenario (Table 7.2). That saving
is roughly equal to the current energy demand of China. Demand still grows, by
37% between 2004 and 2030, but more slowly: 1.2% annually against 1.6% in
the Reference Scenario. The impact of new policies is less marked in the period
to 2015, but far from negligible: the difference between the two scenarios in
2015 is about 4%, or 534 Mtoe, close to the current consumption of Japan.
Table 7.2: World Energy Demand in the Alternative Policy Scenario (Mtoe)
2004 2015 2030 2004- Difference from
2030* the Reference
Scenario in 2030
Mtoe %
Coal 2 773 3 431 3 512 0.9% – 929 –20.9%
Oil 3 940 4 534 4 955 0.9% – 621 –11.1%
Gas 2 302 2 877 3 370 1.5% – 499 –12.9%
Nuclear 714 852 1 070 1.6% 209 24.3%
Hydro 242 321 422 2.2% 13 3.2%
Biomass and waste 1 176 1 374 1 703 1.4% 58 3.6%
Other renewables 57 148 373 7.5% 77 26.1%
Total 11 204 13 537 15 405 1.2% –1 690 –9.9%
* Average annual rate of growth.
The cost of replacing capital stock prematurely is high, even when the new stock
is more energy-efficient. This limits the opportunities for change, especially over
the next ten years. In the longer term, more capital stock will be added and
replaced, boosting opportunities for the introduction of more efficient
technologies. The gap between the demand figures of the two scenarios
accordingly widens progressively over the projection period (Figure 7.2).
Chapter 7 - Mapping a New Energy Future 173
7
© OECD/IEA, 2007