World Energy Outlook 2006

compared with 1.3% in the Reference Scenario. Per-capita primary energy
continues to rise, from 1.76 toe in 2004 to 1.89 toe in 2015 and remains at this
level through to 2030. It nonetheless is 10% lower in 2030, compared with the
Reference Scenario.
Investment and Fuel Expenditures
The Alternative Policy Scenario yields considerable savings in energy demand,
energy imports, CO 2 emissions from the Reference Scenario and requires less
overall energy investment. The savings are attained through a combination of
increased consumer investment on more energy-efficient goods and of fuel choice
decisions in the power and transport sectors. Over the next two-and-a-half decades,
households and firms have to invest $2.4 trillion more than in the Reference
Scenario to buy more efficient goods. Consumers in the OECD countries bear
two-thirds of the incremental investment. The incremental investment is more than
offset in most cases by lower energy bills. The change in end-use investment
patterns, the consequences for consumers’ energy bills and energy supply
investment for the Alternative Policy Scenario are analysed in detail in Chapter 8.
Oil Markets
Demand
Global oil demand reaches 103 mb/d in 2030 in the Alternative Policy Scenario –
an increase of 20 mb/d on 2005 levels, but a fall of 13 mb/d compared with the
Reference Scenario (Table 7.4). These savings are equivalent to the current combined
production of Saudi Arabia and Iran. By 2015, demand reaches 95 mb/d, a
reduction of almost 5 mb/d on the Reference Scenario. Measures in the transport
sector – notably those that boost the fuel economy of new vehicles – contribute 59%
of the savings over the projection period. Increased efficiency in industrial processes
accounts for 13%, and fuel switching in the power sector and lower demand from
other energy-transformation activities, such as heat plants and refining, for 9%.
More efficient residential and commercial oil use makes up the rest.
The biggest savings occur in the United States, China and the European Union,
which, combined, contribute almost half of the global oil savings by 2030. The US
market remains the largest at that time, at 22.5 mb/d, followed by China, at
13.1 mb/d and the European Union at 12.8 mb/d. The impact of new policies
differs markedly among these markets. EU oil demand peaks around 2015 and
then declines at a rate of 0.5% per year. Japan follows a very similar trend with an
even more pronounced decline, of 0.7% per year, after 2015. Demand in the
United States levels out after 2015, but does not fall. On the other hand, oil
demand in China continues to grow steadily, averaging 2.8% per year over the
projection period, though the rate of increase does slow progressively. Demand in
all other developing regions continues to grow, albeit at a more moderate pace than
in the Reference Scenario.
178 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007