World Energy Outlook 2006

electricity demand account for 35% of the reduction in coal use in the power
sector, and the remainder to fuel switching. In 2030, coal’s share in electricity
generation globally is expected to be three percentage points lower than today.
The biggest coal savings in absolute terms occur in China, where demand is
678 Mt lower, in the European Union (323 Mt), in the United States (235 Mt)
and in India (259 Mt). Together, those regions account for over 85% of the
total reduction in coal use in 2030.
In contrast to the slight increase seen in the Reference Scenario, coal
consumption in the OECD will peak before 2015 and then decline at 1.2% per
year. This decrease is more than offset by the consumption growth in developing
countries, which is expected to continue at 1.9% per year through the Outlook
period, driven by China and India. In fact, the Alternative Policy Scenario sees
Chinese coal demand overtake that of the entire OECD region around 2010.
Figure 7.9: Coal Demand in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
China
India
Rest of world
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
2004 Reference Scenario 2030
million tonnes
Alternative Policy Scenario 2030
There is a large degree of uncertainty in these demand trends. They are
particularly sensitive to the policies and technologies adopted in the major
markets: China, the United States and India. While neither the Reference nor
the Alternative Policy Scenario assumes any significant penetration of carbon
capture and storage, this technology could significantly change the demand
trends depicted. Faster penetration of coal to liquids, discussed in Chapter 5,
could also alter those trends. The former is likely to offer more potential for
coal in a carbon-constrained world, the latter to enhance security in the
transport sector by increasing the alternatives to oil-based products.
Chapter 7 - Mapping a New Energy Future 185
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© OECD/IEA, 2007