World Energy Outlook 2006

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ethanol yields and lowering unit costs. 10 Conversion efficiencies of 60% to 70% may ultimately be possible, yielding greenhouse-gas emission reductions of 90% or more compared with gasoline, assuming all the process energy is provided by the lignin component in the feedstock that cannot be converted to ethanol (Hamelinck et al., 2004). Succesful ligno-cellulosic ethanol technology would open the door to a much wider array of potential cellulosic feedstocks, including dedicated cellulosic crops, such as grasses and fast-growing trees. In North America, attention is being given to corn stover and switchgrass. In Europe, attention is focused on food-processing waste, miscanthus grass and short-rotation woody biomass. In Brazil, sugar cane stalks (bagasse) are already used to provide heat and electrical process energy for ethanol conversion, once the sugar is removed, but are not actually processed into ethanol itself. Much of the sugar-cane crop is still left in the field and burned. Advanced ligno-cellulosic conversion processes would allow the full use of the biomass available in the cane. Other forms of cellulosic feedstock could be grown on poorer quality soils than those currently used to grow crops for conventional ethanol production, requiring less fertilizer and water. Production costs could be considerably lower than for the cereal and seed crops currently used in Europe and the United States (Table 14.5) For the production of ethanol from ligno-cellulosic feedstocks to become commercially viable, significant technological challenges still need to be overcome. Today, there is virtually no commercial production of ethanol from cellulosic biomass, but there is substantial research going on in this area in IEA countries, particularly the United States, Canada and Sweden. A key objective is to produce a fermented broth with a higher concentration of ethanol, in order to reduce the energy needs of the distillation process to fuel grade. A commercial scale plant is under construction in the United States and others are planned in Europe. The unit production cost is expected to be almost $1 per litre of gasoline equivalent, based on a biomass feedstock price of $3.60/GJ (Hamelinck et al., 2005). Significantly lower costs are believed to be achievable in the next one or two decades, through optimised pre-treatment, higher ethanol concentrations before distillation, enhanced enzymes and improved separation techniques. Integration of biomass gasification and combined-cycle technology to improve the efficiency of use of the unused portion of lignin to power the process may also help lower costs and reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Scaling up production facilities and better logistics 10. The financial cost of biomass from perennial crops such as trees and grasses is around $2/GJ (assuming each tonne of biomass contains 19 GJ) in many world regions, including Eastern Europe and the United States. It is lower in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa. In temperate regions, the cost of producing cereals and seeds for ethanol production is typically five to ten times higher. Chapter 14 - The <strong>Outlook</strong> for Biofuels 409 14
Table 14.5: Performance Characteristics of Biofuel Crops in Europe Crop Period Typical Primary Typical net Production Status yield energy input energy yield cost of (dry tonnes/ (GJ/ha/yr) (GJ/ha/yr) biofuel ha/year) (euro/GJ) Rape Current 2.9 11 110 20 Widely deployed in Germany and France, Long term 4 12 180 12 to a lesser extent in Austria and Italy. Requires high-quality land. Needs large subsidies to compete, even in the long term. Sugar beet Current 14 13 250 12 Annual crop, requiring high-quality land. Long term 20 10 370 8 High productivity but needs large amounts of energy-intensive fertilizers. Only surpluses are currently used for ethanol production. Willow Current 10 5 180 3-6 Perennial crop with typical rotation of Long term 15 5 280
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Will the investment come? Meeting t
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World primary energy demand in 2030
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above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Larger energy savings would require
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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would be needed (over and above tho
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Government Policies and Measures As
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over the projection period, as it d
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for heating, and faster improvement
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Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
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dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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is assumed that available end-use t
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Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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een revised down and that for coal
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Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
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Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
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Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
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Exploration and development Explora
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China United States Middle East Ind
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illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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far the largest consumer. The econo
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new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
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Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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the Organization of the Petroleum E
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A lack of reliable information on p
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Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
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mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
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Investment Cumulative global invest
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amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
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Environmental policies and regulati
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growth marginally, pushing demand d
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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The long-term rate of increase in G
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cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
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Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
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Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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construction of upstream and downst
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investment is incremental and where
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Demand Global coal use is projected
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Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
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international demand. In contrast,
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Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Consolidation of the mining industr
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� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
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Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Page 383 and 384: Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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Page 387 and 388: Current Status of Biofuels Producti
Page 389 and 390: Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
Page 391 and 392: Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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Page 395 and 396: Prospects for Biofuels Production a
Page 397 and 398: 32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
Page 399 and 400: Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
Page 401 and 402: Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
Page 403 and 404: Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
Page 405 and 406: EU biofuels production and use have
Page 407 and 408: Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
Page 409: $0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Page 420 and 421: CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
Page 422 and 423: charcoal generates significant empl
Page 424 and 425: Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
Page 426 and 427: 1.3 million people) are due to biom
Page 428 and 429: The effects of exposure to indoor a
Page 430 and 431: Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
Page 432 and 433: poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
Page 434 and 435: Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
Page 436 and 437: In view of their ability to reduce
Page 438 and 439: Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
Page 440 and 441: 50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
Page 442 and 443: The trend worldwide is towards remo
Page 444 and 445: Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
Page 446: The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
Page 449 and 450: $46 billion in the power sector, bu
Page 451 and 452: Administration has increased public
Page 453 and 454: Brazil’s rate of population growt
Page 455 and 456: Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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Page 459 and 460: Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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