World Energy Outlook 2006

illion dollars (2005)
Figure 8.1: Change in Cumulative Demand- and Supply-Side Investment
in the Alternative Policy Scenario*, 2005-2030
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
–1 000
–2 000
–3 000
–4 000
Additional
demand-side
investment
* Compared with the Reference Scenario.
Avoided
supply-side
investment
Net change
in energy
investment
The macroeconomic gains from more efficient energy use involve transfers of
income in part from energy producers to producers of consumer end-products
and new technologies, and in part from energy consumers to equipment
producers and technology providers. Ultimately, consumers invest an estimated
$2.4 trillion more over the projection period compared with the Reference
Scenario. That additional investment is the consequence of more costly purchases
of more efficient cars, industrial motors, appliances and other types of
equipment. It reduces global demand for energy by 10% in 2030. As a result, the
need for investment in oil, gas, coal, and electricity production and distribution
is significantly lower. Cumulative investment in energy-supply infrastructure over
2005-2030 amounts to $17 trillion in the Alternative Policy Scenario, about
$3 trillion less than in the Reference Scenario.
Investment not only shifts from supply to demand in the Alternative Policy
Scenario; responsibility for investment decisions also shifts, to the innumerable
individual firms and households purchasing these new goods. In the Reference
Scenario, investments are made by a much smaller group of actors, primarily
large energy producers and distributors. To give an idea of the magnitude of the
shift, consider the output of one mid-load CCGT plant producing some 2 TWh
of electricity per year. To save the same amount of electricity per year, some
16 million European consumers would need to buy a 40% more efficient
refrigerator. 2 This would equate to 80% of annual refrigerator sales in Europe.
2. According to current labels, this is equivalent to moving from a class A refrigerator to a class A++.
Chapter 8 - Assessing the Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Policies 195
© OECD/IEA, 2007
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