World Energy Outlook 2006

in the long run (in particular maintaining adequate investment in the power
infrastructure). Several factors in the Alternative Policy Scenario improve the
prospects for a secure power supply in all regions, both in the short and long
term as compared to the Reference Scenario. On the demand side, lower
electricity intensity improves the resilience of the economy to potential power
supply disruptions, while the reduction of electricity demand (by 12%
worldwide in 2030) reduces the pressure on power generation and distribution
networks. On the supply side, a more diverse fuel mix (the combined share of
the two dominant power generation fuels – coal and gas – is reduced from 67%
to 57% worldwide) creates more potential for fuel switching and, by increasing
the use of renewables and nuclear, whose share increases by nine percentage
points worldwide in 2030, lowers dependence on fuels that must be imported.
Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions
The policies and measures analysed in the Alternative Policy Scenario
significantly curb the growth of energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions. Lower
overall energy consumption and a larger share of less carbon-intensive fuels in the
primary energy mix together yield, in 2030, savings of 6.3 gigatonnes (Gt), or
16%, in emissions compared with the Reference Scenario. The total avoided
emissions by 2030 are equal to more than the current emissions of the United
States and Canada combined. The change in emissions trends is noticeable by
2015, by which point the Alternative Policy Scenario yields annual savings of
1.7 Gt, an amount equal to the current emissions of Japan and Korea combined.
Notwithstanding the improvements, global CO 2 emissions nonetheless continue
to rise, from 26 Gt in 2004 to 32 Gt in 2015 and 34 Gt in 2030 – a 21%
increase by 2015 and a 31% increase by 2030.
The policies of the Alternative Policy Scenario lead to stabilisation and then
reduction of emissions in OECD countries before 2030 (Figure 7.11).
Emissions there peak around 2015, at close to 14 Gt, and then tail off to less
than 13 Gt in 2030. That is still slightly higher than in 2004, but well below
the Reference Scenario level in 2030 of 15.5 Gt. Europe and the Pacific
regions are responsible for the decline in emissions after 2015: their emissions
are even lower in 2030 than today. By contrast, emissions in the United
States – by far the largest emitting country in the OECD – peak some time
before 2020 and fall only marginally before 2030.
Growth in emissions continues in non-OECD regions, though the rate of
increase slows appreciably over the Outlook period. Developing-country
emissions grow at 2.1% annually on average through to 2030, reaching 14.4 Gt in
2015 and 17.5 Gt in 2030 – up from 10.2 Gt in 2004. In the Reference Scenario,
their emissions reach 21.1 Gt in 2030. Emissions in China alone rise by 4 Gt
between 2004 and 2030, accounting for half of the global increase (Figure 7.12).
188 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007