World Energy Outlook 2006

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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is generated as a by-product of both oil refining and natural gas production. The incremental world oil and gas demand which would result from widespread take-up of LPG is negligible. Assuming average consumption of LPG of 22 kg per person per year13 and assuming all of this LPG was derived from oil rather than natural gas, providing 1.3 billion additional people with LPG by 2015 would increase oil demand by 0.7 mb/d, or 0.69% of the 99 mb/d projected in the Reference Scenario (Figure 15.7). The increase would be 0.72% in the Alternative Policy Scenario. If all households currently using biomass switched to LPG by 2030, the rise in oil demand would be 1.4 mb/d. Such a figure is but a tiny fraction of the fuel lost through the flaring of natural gas. 14 These are upper bounds because, as noted earlier, LPG is just one of several energy carriers that could be pursued as substitutes for traditional biomass, whereas these calculations have taken LPG as a proxy for them all. mb/d Figure 15.7: Additional LPG Demand Associated with Switching Compared with World Oil Demand 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Reference Scenario 2005 2015 0.7 1.4 2030 Alternative Policy Scenario Additional LPG 13. A weighted average based on WHO data for developing country households currently using LPG. 14. Around 60% of global LPG supply comes from natural gas processing. Chapter 15 - Energy for Cooking in Developing Countries 437 15
Implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions The overall effect on greenhouse-gas emissions of switching from biomass to LPG is very difficult to quantify because it depends on many factors, including the particular fuels involved, the types of stoves used and whether the biomass is being replaced by new planting. Both biomass and non-biomass fuels emit CO2 and other greenhouse gases. If burnt biomass is not replaced by new growth, a net addition of CO2 to the atmosphere occurs. Also, inefficient biomass combustion produces some gases which have an even more powerful greenhouse effect than CO2 . Although biomass used with traditional stoves can be carbon-neutral (if CO2 emissions from the combustion process are offset by absorption during regrowth), the process is not emissions-neutral unless the biomass fuel is burnt efficiently and completely (UNEP, 2006). Although the overall impact on emissions of switching to modern fuels can be either positive or negative, improved stoves and greater conversion efficiency would result in unambiguous emissions reductions from all fuels. Costs and Financial Implications Switching to LPG involves capital expenditure for the stove and cylinder and recurring expenditure for the fuel itself. Costs per household vary somewhat by region according to differences in household size. The capital expenditure for the equipment (stoves and cylinders) is assumed to be $50 per household (UN Millennium Project et al., 2005). 15 On that basis, the total stove and cylinder cost would be $13.6 billion in the period to 2015 (Table 15.5), or $1.5 billion per year, and $14.5 billion in the period 2015-2030. Spending needs would be highest in India. Fuel costs are estimated to be $0.55 per kilogram of LPG, based on 2005 consumer prices in a sample of developing countries. Combined with start-up capital costs, the total bill (capital plus fuel costs) for households switching to LPG would then be $8 billion per year in the period to 2015 and $18 billion per year from now to 2030. Although these costs are not negligible, they are small compared with allocations of resources elsewhere in the world economy (Figure 15.8). For example, the annualised capital and operating costs through to 2030 represent 10.6% of what OECD countries spent on Official Development Assistance (ODA) in 2004, 3% of the estimated $278 billion that developing and transition economies spent on energy price subsidies in 2005 (Chapter 11) and 1% of the $808 billion that will need to be spent annually on global energy infrastructure in the Reference Scenario (Chapter 2). 15. The UNDP/WLPGA LP Gas Challenge estimates $45 to $60 for a stove, a cylinder and 6kg of gas. 438 World Energy Outlook 2006 - FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Will the investment come? Meeting t
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World primary energy demand in 2030
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above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Larger energy savings would require
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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would be needed (over and above tho
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Government Policies and Measures As
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over the projection period, as it d
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for heating, and faster improvement
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Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
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dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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is assumed that available end-use t
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Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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een revised down and that for coal
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Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
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Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
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Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
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Exploration and development Explora
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China United States Middle East Ind
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illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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far the largest consumer. The econo
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new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
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Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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the Organization of the Petroleum E
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A lack of reliable information on p
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Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
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mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
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Investment Cumulative global invest
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amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
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Environmental policies and regulati
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growth marginally, pushing demand d
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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The long-term rate of increase in G
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cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
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Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
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Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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construction of upstream and downst
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investment is incremental and where
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Demand Global coal use is projected
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Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
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international demand. In contrast,
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Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Consolidation of the mining industr
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� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
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Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
Page 387 and 388: Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Page 391 and 392: Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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Page 395 and 396: Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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Page 420 and 421: CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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Page 424 and 425: Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
Page 426 and 427: 1.3 million people) are due to biom
Page 428 and 429: The effects of exposure to indoor a
Page 430 and 431: Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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Page 434 and 435: Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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Page 440 and 441: 50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
Page 442 and 443: The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Page 446: The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
Page 449 and 450: $46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Page 453 and 454: Brazil’s rate of population growt
Page 455 and 456: Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
Page 457 and 458: domestic oil production and increas
Page 459 and 460: Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Page 467 and 468: Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
Page 469 and 470: Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
Page 471 and 472: Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
Page 473 and 474: Production and Imports Gas producti
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Page 477 and 478: This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Page 483 and 484: Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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