World Energy Outlook 2006

the average production cost of synfuels would be about $50 per barrel,
making CTL competitive at a crude oil price of under $40. However, at
current coal prices, oil prices would have to average well over $50 per barrel.
Moreover, the capital costs of CTL plants are very high: around $5 billion
for a 80-kb/d unit compared with less than $2 billion for a GTL plant of
similar size. CTL plants must have access to reliable supplies of low-cost
coal, ideally with adjacent reserves of at least 500 million tonnes. CTL
processes are also very energy-intensive and result in seven to ten times more
CO 2 emissions per unit of output than conventional oil refineries (without
carbon capture and storage). For these reasons, CTL is likely to remain a
niche activity over the Outlook period.
Source: IEA (2006).
Source: BP (2006).
Figure 5.2: Proven Coal Reserves by Country (end-2005)
Ukraine
4%
Kazakhstan
3%
Russia
17%
South Africa
5%
India
10%
Rest of world
8%
909 billion tonnes
China
13%
United States
27%
European Union
4%
Australia
9%
In the Reference Scenario, China – already the world’s leading coal producer –
and India together account for over three-quarters of the 3 300 million-tonne
increase in coal production over the Outlook period (Table 5.2). The United
States sees the biggest absolute rise in output among OECD countries,
accounting for about 8% of global production growth. However, its
production will lag domestic requirements. Although it has vast reserves, they
are relatively expensive to extract and transport in some parts of the country.
Australia, Indonesia, South Africa and Colombia also raise their production
significantly to meet rising domestic needs and to profit from growing
Chapter 5 - Coal Market Outlook 129
© OECD/IEA, 2007
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