World Energy Outlook 2006

new field wildcats, 1996-2005
log scale (number)
Figure 3.3: Undiscovered Oil Resources and New Wildcat Wells Drilled,
1996-2005
100 000
10 000
1 000
100
0
Asia-Pacific
Europe
North America
Africa
Latin
America
Middle East
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
estimated undiscovered crude oil and NGLs
(billion barrels of oil equivalent)
Note: The size of each bubble indicates the average size of new discoveries in 1996-2005.
FSU: Former Soviet Union.
Sources: Undiscovered resources – USGS (2000); new field wildcats – IHS databases.
There has recently been an increase in the average size of new hydrocarbon
discoveries for each new field wildcat well drilled, bucking the trend of much of
the period 1965-1998. The size of new fields that have been discovered has
continued to decline, largely because exploration and appraisal activity has been
focused mainly on existing basins. However, the application of new technology,
such as 3D seismic, has increased the discovery success rate per wildcat well,
particularly since 1998 – boosted by rising global oil demand and a resulting
increase in exploration and appraisal activity – and, to a lesser extent, since
1991, with the advent of deep-water exploration (Figure 3.4). Nonetheless, the
average size of discoveries per wildcat well – at around 10 million barrels –
remains barely half that of the period 1965-1979. The reduction almost to zero
of exploration in the Middle East, where discoveries have been largest, was the
main reason for the lower average size of discoveries since the 1980s.
Exploration and appraisal drilling is expected to increase to offset rising decline
rates at existing fields and the consequent need to develop new reservoirs –
particularly in MENA, where some of the greatest potential for finding new
fields exists. Proven reserves are already larger than the cumulative production
90 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
FSU
© OECD/IEA, 2007