World Energy Outlook 2006

proliferation arising from civil nuclear activities can be mitigated only by full
participation in and demonstrated compliance with international conventions
related to the use of nuclear power.
Based on the projections of the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios, the
annual amount of spent fuel could reach 12 000 to 15 000 tonnes heavy metal
by 2030. Cumulative spent fuel production over the Outlook period is likely to
range between 470 000 and 620 000 tonnes. This exceeds by far the current
storage capacity of 244 000 tonnes, indicating the need for new facilities and
policies to manage waste, including reprocessing. 15 Permanent long-term
storage facilities must be put in place.
Where governments are determined to enhance energy security, cut carbon
emissions and mitigate undue pressure on fossil fuel prices, they may choose to
play a role in tackling the obstacles on the path of nuclear power, facilitating
the large initial investment required for nuclear plants – between $2 billion and
$3.5 billion per unit – and in paving the way for the development of a new
generation of reactors. These objectives have become more explicit in recent
years and the economics have moved in nuclear power’s favour; but concrete
measures have so far been few.
15. Current spent fuel production and storage capacity are taken from Fukuda et al. (2003).
384 World Energy Outlook 2006 - FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS