World Energy Outlook 2006

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
–10%
Figure 7.10: Change in Oil and Gas Imports in the Reference
and Alternative Policy Scenarios, 2004-2030
United
States
European
Union
Reference Scenario
Japan Korea
Alternative Policy Scenario
The degree to which energy-importing countries are dependent on imports
differs markedly between the two scenarios. In the Reference Scenario, the gas
and oil import dependence of OECD countries, taken as a whole, rises from
30% in 2004 to 38% in 2030. Much of the increase depends upon exports
from Middle Eastern and North African countries (IEA, 2005b). In the
Alternative Policy Scenario, the OECD’s energy import dependence still
increases, but to 33%, a level reached within the next 10 years in the Reference
Scenario. For developing countries there is also a difference, but it is less
marked than in OECD countries.
As the share of transport in total oil use continues to grow in all regions in the
scenarios described in this Outlook, the inflexibility of this class of oil demand
increases the vulnerability of importing countries. However, demand for oilbased
transport fuels grows significantly less in the Alternative Policy Scenario,
compared to the Reference Scenario, both because of lower transport demand
and because the share of non-oil fuels in global transport increases from 6% in
2004 to 10% in 2030. This is mainly due to increased use of biofuels in road
transport and, to a lesser extent, to switching to other forms of transport.
The security of electricity supply is a multi-faceted problem. Different risks
affect power plants and transmission and distribution networks. Factors that
can improve security of supply in the short term (the management of powergeneration
facilities and the network to match supply and demand in real time)
can be usefully distinguished from factors that can improve security of supply
Chapter 7 - Mapping a New Energy Future 187
7
© OECD/IEA, 2007