World Energy Outlook 2006

Demand 1
Primary oil 2 demand is expected to continue to grow steadily over the
projection period in the Reference Scenario, at an average annual rate of 1.3%.
It reaches 99 mb/d in 2015 and 116 mb/d in 2030, up from 84 mb/d in
2005 (Table 3.1). The pace of demand growth nonetheless slackens
Table 3.1: World Primary Oil Demand* (million barrels per day)
1980 2004 2005 2010 2015 2030 2005-
2030**
OECD 41.9 47.5 47.7 49.8 52.4 55.1 0.6%
North America 21.0 24.8 24.9 26.3 28.2 30.8 0.9%
United States 17.4 20.5 20.6 21.6 23.1 25.0 0.8%
Canada 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.8 0.8%
Mexico 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 3.1 1.6%
Europe 14.7 14.5 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.4 0.2%
Pacific 6.2 8.2 8.3 8.6 8.8 8.9 0.3%
Transition economies 8.9 4.3 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.7 1.1%
Russia n.a. 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 1.0%
Developing countries 11.4 27.2 28.0 33.0 37.9 51.3 2.5%
Developing Asia 4.4 14.2 14.6 17.7 20.6 29.7 2.9%
China 1.9 6.5 6.6 8.4 10.0 15.3 3.4%
India 0.7 2.6 2.6 3.2 3.7 5.4 3.0%
Indonesia 0.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.3 2.4%
Middle East 2.0 5.5 5.8 7.1 8.1 9.7 2.0%
Africa 1.4 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.9 2.4%
North Africa 0.5 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.5 2.4%
Latin America 3.5 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.6 7.0 1.5%
Brazil 1.4 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.7 3.5 2.0%
Int. marine bunkers 2.2 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.3 0.6%
World 64.4 82.5 83.6 91.3 99.3 116.3 1.3%
European Union n.a. 13.5 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.1 0.2%
* Includes stock changes. ** Average annual growth rate.
n.a.: not available.
1. See Chapter 2 for a more detailed discussion of the role of oil in the overall energy mix.
2. Oil does not include biofuels derived from biomass. Transport demand for oil is modelled to take
account of the use of biofuels (see Chapter 14). See Annex C for a detailed definition of oil.
86 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007