World Energy Outlook 2006

ole in power supply, if its costs could be brought down. Better integration of
national and regional electricity systems could also dampen the effects of
intermittency and allow the higher share of renewables to grow. Large-scale
electricity-storage systems could serve a similar purpose.
Some technologies are inhibited by a combination of institutional and
technical barriers. As discussed above, nuclear power offers considerable
advantages in terms of avoiding greenhouse-gas emissions and of energy
security. The development of fourth-generation nuclear reactors and new fuelcycle
facilities aims to address waste disposal and nuclear proliferation concerns
– central to the anxieties of the public about this electricity source (see Chapter
13). However, fourth-generation reactors are not yet commercial. It will take
considerable additional resource commitments, as well as policy intervention,
to bring this generation into widespread use. Its broad penetration is likely only
after 2030 (IEA, 2002).
The building sector is highly significant in terms of its longer-term potential.
While some retrofitting of the existing building stock is both technically and
economically feasible today, a considerably greater opportunity will emerge
as the existing stock is replaced. Achieving better insulated building shells,
improved ventilation systems and the necessary urban planning measures
requires patience. But action as opportunity permits would reduce the
demand for space heating and cooling and, possibly, for transportation. This
would affect not only demand for electricity but also for fossil fuels. New
technologies are emerging that may lead to major changes in this sector,
including small-scale combined heat and power generation systems for
heating and cooling of buildings, improved condensing gas boilers, and
gas-fired heat pumps. Of special importance are the construction
programmes in new cities in the developing world, especially in temperate
climates; taking advantage of modern technologies can significantly reduce
their energy demand.
Indeed, in many countries, new buildings could, on average, be made 70% more
efficient than existing buildings. In Europe today there are over 6 000 passive
solar buildings, mainly in Germany and northern Europe. While these houses are
not yet zero-energy, their heating energy needs are typically 75% lower than
normal. A combination of good insulation and ventilation heat-exchange is
sufficient to achieve this. A further step will be required to achieve zero-energy
buildings (designed to use no net energy from the utility grid).
In the period from 2030 to 2050, the production of hydrogen from
low-carbon and zero-carbon sources could expand and the consumption of
hydrogen, in distributed uses, could grow substantially. However, this will
require huge infrastructure investments (IEA, 2005). Hydrogen-powered
fuel-cell vehicles could make a significant contribution, even by 2030, if there
264 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007