World Energy Outlook 2006

More documents

Recommendations

Info

10 11 12 Table of Contents Getting to and Going Beyond the Alternative Policy Scenario 249 Highlights 249 Making the Alternative Policy Scenario a Reality 250 Identifying Policy Priorities 250 Hurdles to Policy Adoption and Implementation 253 Going Beyond the Alternative Policy Scenario 256 Achieving the BAPS Goal 256 Implications for Energy Security 262 Beyond 2030: the Need for a Technology Shift 262 Part C: Focus on Key Topics 267 The Impact of Higher Energy Prices 269 Highlights 269 Introduction 270 Energy Price Trends and Relationships 270 International Prices 270 Final Prices to End Users 275 Quantifying Energy Subsidies 277 Impact of Higher Energy Prices on Demand 282 Energy Demand Trends since Prices Started Rising 282 Responsiveness of Energy Demand to Price Changes 283 Explaining Recent Trends in Energy Demand 289 Price Sensitivity Analysis 295 Macroeconomic Impact of Higher Energy Prices 297 How Higher Energy Prices Affect the Macroeconomy 297 Quantifying the Recent Shift in the Terms of Trade 299 Simulating the Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Energy Prices 301 Explaining Macroeconomic Resilience to Higher Energy Prices 306 Energy Policy Implications 313 Current Trends in Oil and Gas Investment 315 Highlights 315 Overview 316 Exploration and Development 321 Investment Trends 321 Impact of Cost Inflation on Upstream Investment 327 Implications for Oil and Gas Production Capacity 331 Oil Refining 335 Liquefied Natural Gas Facilities 336 Gas-to-Liquids Plants 340 Oil Sands and Extra-Heavy Oil 341 Investment beyond the Current Decade 341 19 © OECD/IEA, 2007
13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 343 Highlights 343 Current Status of Nuclear Power 344 Renewed Interest in Nuclear Power 344 Nuclear Power Today 346 Historical Development 348 Policy Overview 351 Nuclear Power Generation 351 Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management 356 Proliferation and International Conventions 357 Outlook for Nuclear Power 360 Reference Scenario 361 Alternative Policy Scenario 361 Nuclear Power Economics in Competitive Markets 364 Generating Costs under Different Discount Rate Assumptions 364 Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Power Generating Costs 368 Other Factors Influencing the Generating Cost of Nuclear Power 371 Financing Nuclear Power Plants 374 Nuclear Fuel Outlook 376 Demand for Uranium 376 Uranium Resources 377 Uranium Production 380 Uranium Prices and Investment in Exploration and Production 381 Policy Issues 382 The Outlook for Biofuels 385 Highlights 385 Current Status of Biofuels Production and Use 386 Market Overview 386 Ethanol 388 Biodiesel 389 The Environmental Impact of Biofuels 391 Prospects for Biofuels Production and Use 394 Summary of Projections to 2030 394 Regional Trends 400 Key Drivers and Uncertainties 405 Technology and Production Costs 405 Biomass and Land Needs for Biofuels Production 412 International Trade in Biofuels 416 20 World Energy Outlook 2006 © OECD/IEA, 2007
Page 1 and 2: Warning: Please note that this PDF
Page 3 and 4: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
Page 5 and 6: It is possible to go further and fa
Page 7 and 8: Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
Page 9 and 10: Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
Page 11 and 12: John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
Page 13 and 14: © OECD/IEA, 2007
Page 15 and 16: T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
Page 17 and 18: Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
Page 19: 8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
Page 23 and 24: List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
Page 25 and 26: 6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
Page 27 and 28: 9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
Page 29 and 30: 13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
Page 31 and 32: Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
Page 33 and 34: 11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
Page 35 and 36: Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
Page 37 and 38: World Energy Outlook Series World E
Page 39 and 40: half of the increase in global prim
Page 41 and 42: Will the investment come? Meeting t
Page 43 and 44: World primary energy demand in 2030
Page 45 and 46: above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
Page 47 and 48: Larger energy savings would require
Page 51 and 52: would be needed (over and above tho
Page 55 and 56: Government Policies and Measures As
Page 57 and 58: over the projection period, as it d
Page 59 and 60: for heating, and faster improvement
Page 61 and 62: Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
Page 63 and 64: dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
Page 65 and 66: is assumed that available end-use t
Page 67 and 68: Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
Page 69 and 70: een revised down and that for coal
Page 71 and 72:
Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
Page 73 and 74:
Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
Page 75 and 76:
Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
Page 77 and 78:
capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
Page 79 and 80:
Exploration and development Explora
Page 81 and 82:
China United States Middle East Ind
Page 83 and 84:
illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
Page 85 and 86:
© OECD/IEA, 2007
Page 87 and 88:
Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
Page 89 and 90:
far the largest consumer. The econo
Page 91 and 92:
new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
Page 93 and 94:
Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
Page 95 and 96:
the Organization of the Petroleum E
Page 97 and 98:
A lack of reliable information on p
Page 99 and 100:
Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
Page 101 and 102:
mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
Page 103 and 104:
Investment Cumulative global invest
Page 105 and 106:
amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
Page 107 and 108:
Environmental policies and regulati
Page 109 and 110:
growth marginally, pushing demand d
Page 111 and 112:
© OECD/IEA, 2007
Page 113 and 114:
Demand Primary gas consumption is p
Page 115 and 116:
The long-term rate of increase in G
Page 117 and 118:
cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
Page 119 and 120:
Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
Page 121 and 122:
Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
Page 123 and 124:
construction of upstream and downst
Page 125 and 126:
investment is incremental and where
Page 127 and 128:
Demand Global coal use is projected
Page 129 and 130:
Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
Page 131 and 132:
international demand. In contrast,
Page 133 and 134:
Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
Page 135 and 136:
Consolidation of the mining industr
Page 137 and 138:
� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
Page 139 and 140:
Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
Page 141 and 142:
TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
Page 143 and 144:
generating capacity from 364 GW in
Page 145 and 146:
The share of non-hydro renewable so
Page 147 and 148:
y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
Page 149 and 150:
phase-out policies require 27 GW of
Page 151 and 152:
illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
Page 153 and 154:
Increasing interconnection capacity
Page 155 and 156:
(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
Page 157 and 158:
Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
Page 159 and 160:
© OECD/IEA, 2007
Page 161 and 162:
© OECD/IEA, 2007
Page 163 and 164:
� Policies encouraging more effic
Page 165 and 166:
the additional policies and technol
Page 167 and 168:
fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
Page 169 and 170:
Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
Page 171 and 172:
Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
Page 173 and 174:
lower cost than in the Reference Sc
Page 175 and 176:
The reduction in the use of fossil
Page 177 and 178:
global consumption of biomass is 58
Page 179 and 180:
compared with 1.3% in the Reference
Page 181 and 182:
production. For these reasons, we a
Page 183 and 184:
mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
Page 185 and 186:
markets is significantly lower in t
Page 187 and 188:
Production and Trade As in the Refe
Page 189 and 190:
in the long run (in particular main
Page 191 and 192:
Notwithstanding the rates of growth
Page 193 and 194:
Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
Page 195 and 196:
Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
Page 197 and 198:
Investment along the Electricity Ch
Page 199 and 200:
Demand-Side Investment Additional d
Page 201 and 202:
Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
Page 203 and 204:
Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
Page 205 and 206:
Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
Page 207 and 208:
and another to buy a car. But there
Page 209 and 210:
Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
Page 211 and 212:
With the exception of China (where
Page 213 and 214:
© OECD/IEA, 2007
Page 215 and 216:
Power Generation Summary of Results
Page 217 and 218:
Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
Page 219 and 220:
Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
Page 221 and 222:
Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
Page 223 and 224:
The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
Page 225 and 226:
As oil is the principal fuel in tra
Page 227 and 228:
Fuel Economy Governments intervene
Page 229 and 230:
The broad categories of policy ment
Page 231 and 232:
millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
Page 233 and 234:
period. The fleet grows most rapidl
Page 235 and 236:
emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
Page 237 and 238:
greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
Page 239 and 240:
energy-intensive processes in both
Page 241 and 242:
more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
Page 243 and 244:
Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
Page 245 and 246:
which have much lower equipment own
Page 247 and 248:
Policy Overview Policies taken into
Page 249 and 250:
� Utility energy efficiency schem
Page 251 and 252:
� Four-fifths of the energy and e
Page 253 and 254:
Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
Page 255 and 256:
These examples reflect differences
Page 257 and 258:
countries (for example in relation
Page 259 and 260:
Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
Page 261 and 262:
� Introduction of CO2 capture and
Page 263 and 264:
Implications for Energy Security Th
Page 265 and 266:
ole in power supply, if its costs c
Page 267 and 268:
© OECD/IEA, 2007
Page 269 and 270:
© OECD/IEA, 2007
Page 271 and 272:
Introduction Since the first oil sh
Page 273 and 274:
y about 60% of the increase in the
Page 275 and 276:
second-largest consumer of gas - ga
Page 277 and 278:
Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
Page 279 and 280:
OECD, but remain large in some non-
Page 281 and 282:
Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
Page 283 and 284:
Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
Page 285 and 286:
Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
Page 287 and 288:
complicated by the role played by o
Page 289 and 290:
crude oil price elasticity of fuel
Page 291 and 292:
higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
Page 293 and 294:
2004. It is projected to increase f
Page 295 and 296:
to drive prices up. Demand appears
Page 297 and 298:
on the results of our assessment of
Page 299 and 300:
countries, a price increase directl
Page 301 and 302:
toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
Page 303 and 304:
to examine the issue, reflecting th
Page 305 and 306:
Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
Page 307 and 308:
actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
Page 309 and 310:
0.9 percentage points higher in 200
Page 311 and 312:
Most OECD countries have experience
Page 313 and 314:
developing countries has risen by 4
Page 315 and 316:
$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
Page 317 and 318:
� The five years to 2010 will see
Page 319 and 320:
spending of the 40 companies, accor
Page 321 and 322:
downstream activities, including GT
Page 323 and 324:
illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
Page 325 and 326:
Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
Page 327 and 328:
While most upstream investment cont
Page 329 and 330:
increasing by as much as 100% for a
Page 331 and 332:
Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
Page 333 and 334:
and Africa account for 70% of total
Page 335 and 336:
mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
Page 337 and 338:
Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
Page 339 and 340:
Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
Page 341 and 342:
approved by the US Maritime Adminis
Page 343 and 344:
The prospects for investment and pr
Page 345 and 346:
Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
Page 347 and 348:
Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
Page 349 and 350:
Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
Page 351 and 352:
Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
Page 353 and 354:
Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
Page 355 and 356:
Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
Page 357 and 358:
Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
Page 359 and 360:
Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
Page 361 and 362:
Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
Page 363 and 364:
Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
Page 365 and 366:
light-water reactors (VVER) in two
Page 367 and 368:
assumptions used throughout the Out
Page 369 and 370:
OECD price in 2005 and within the a
Page 371 and 372:
increase in generating cost Figure
Page 373 and 374:
estimates. Approximately three-quar
Page 375 and 376:
disposal or reprocessing followed b
Page 377 and 378:
associated with nuclear power. Expe
Page 379 and 380:
Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
Page 381 and 382:
nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
Page 383 and 384:
Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
Page 385 and 386:
proliferation arising from civil nu
Page 387 and 388:
Current Status of Biofuels Producti
Page 389 and 390:
Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
Page 391 and 392:
Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
Page 393 and 394:
equires estimates of, or assumption
Page 395 and 396:
Prospects for Biofuels Production a
Page 397 and 398:
32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
Page 399 and 400:
Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
Page 401 and 402:
Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
Page 403 and 404:
Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
Page 405 and 406:
EU biofuels production and use have
Page 407 and 408:
Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
Page 409 and 410:
$0.50/litre in the United States (b
Page 411 and 412:
Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
Page 413 and 414:
for supplying biomass residues woul
Page 415 and 416:
200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
Page 417 and 418:
in the Alternative Policy Scenario
Page 420 and 421:
CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
Page 422 and 423:
charcoal generates significant empl
Page 424 and 425:
Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
Page 426 and 427:
1.3 million people) are due to biom
Page 428 and 429:
The effects of exposure to indoor a
Page 430 and 431:
Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
Page 432 and 433:
poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
Page 434 and 435:
Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
Page 436 and 437:
In view of their ability to reduce
Page 438 and 439:
Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
Page 440 and 441:
50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
Page 442 and 443:
The trend worldwide is towards remo
Page 444 and 445:
Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
Page 446:
The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
Page 449 and 450:
$46 billion in the power sector, bu
Page 451 and 452:
Administration has increased public
Page 453 and 454:
Brazil’s rate of population growt
Page 455 and 456:
Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
Page 457 and 458:
domestic oil production and increas
Page 459 and 460:
Industrial energy demand grows by 1
Page 461 and 462:
Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
Page 463 and 464:
southeast regions of Brazil, which
Page 465 and 466:
into the Reference Scenario. End-us
Page 467 and 468:
Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
Page 469 and 470:
Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
Page 471 and 472:
Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
Page 473 and 474:
Production and Imports Gas producti
Page 475 and 476:
unit would be located off the coast
Page 477 and 478:
This trend is bolstered by strong g
Page 479 and 480:
Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
Page 481 and 482:
The construction of very large hydr
Page 483 and 484:
Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
Page 485 and 486:
stronger policies to connect bagass
Page 487 and 488:
Investment The cumulative amount of
Page 490 and 491:
ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
Page 492 and 493:
ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
Page 494 and 495:
Reference Scenario: World Electrici
Page 496 and 497:
Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
Page 498 and 499:
Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
Page 500 and 501:
Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 502 and 503:
Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
Page 504 and 505:
Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
Page 506 and 507:
Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
Page 508 and 509:
Reference Scenario: European Union
Page 510 and 511:
Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
Page 512 and 513:
Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
Page 514 and 515:
Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
Page 516 and 517:
Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
Page 518 and 519:
Reference Scenario: China Electrici
Page 520 and 521:
Reference Scenario: India Electrici
Page 522 and 523:
Reference Scenario: Latin America E
Page 524 and 525:
Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
Page 526 and 527:
Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
Page 528 and 529:
Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
Page 530 and 531:
Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 532 and 533:
Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
Page 534 and 535:
Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
Page 536 and 537:
Alternative Policy Scenario: United
Page 538 and 539:
Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
Page 540 and 541:
Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
Page 542 and 543:
Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
Page 544 and 545:
Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
Page 546 and 547:
Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
Page 548 and 549:
Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
Page 550 and 551:
Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
Page 552 and 553:
Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
Page 554 and 555:
Alternative Policy Scenario: China
Page 556 and 557:
Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 558 and 559:
Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
Page 560 and 561:
Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
Page 562 and 563:
Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
Page 564 and 565:
Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
Page 566 and 567:
ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
Page 568 and 569:
Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
Page 570 and 571:
Page 572 and 573:
Page 574 and 575:
Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
Page 576 and 577:
Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
Page 578 and 579:
Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
Page 580 and 581:
China China refers to the People’
Page 582 and 583:
APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
Page 584 and 585:
RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
Page 586 and 587:
Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
Page 588 and 589:
CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
Page 590 and 591:
Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
Page 592 and 593:
International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
Page 594 and 595:
CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
Page 596 and 597:
REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
Page 598 and 599:
The Online Bookshop International E
Page 600 and 601:
IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
show all

World Energy Outlook 2006

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?