World Energy Outlook 2006

domestic oil production and increased use of ethanol for transport. Although
Brazil still imports oil products, these volumes are balanced by exports of crude
oil. The country became self-sufficient for the first time in April 2006, when the
latest deep-water project came on stream. Import intensity is expected to
continue to decline over the first half of the projection period. Though it begins
to rise by around 2012 (Figure 16.2), Brazil remains a net oil exporter through
to 2030.
barrels per thousand dollars of GDP*
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Domestic crude production
more than triples in the first half
of the 1980s
– 0.1
– 0.2
Self-sufficiency achieved
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
* In year-2005 dollars, adjusted for PPP.
Figure 16.2: Oil Import Intensity in Brazil
Increase in domestic
crude production and
slowdown in demand
growth
Natural gas use increases rapidly over the Outlook period in the Reference
Scenario, at an annual rate of 3.8%, mainly in the industry and powergeneration
sectors. The share of gas in total primary energy demand rises from
8% in 2004 to 12% in 2030. Demand increases faster in the period to 2015,
at 4.6% per year. Coal demand increases by only 0.9% per year, and its share
in primary demand falls from 7% in 2004 to just over 5% by 2030. The
contribution of nuclear power will increase when a third nuclear power plant
comes on line some time before 2015. The capacity factor of nuclear power
plants is assumed to improve from 69% in 2004 to 87% by 2010 and to stay
at this level thereafter. The share of non-hydro renewable energy, mostly
biomass, remains roughly constant at about 27%. The trend towards greater
use of modern forms of biomass is expected to continue.
Total final energy consumption increases from 171 Mtoe in 2004 to 298 Mtoe
in 2030, an average rate of growth of 2.2% per year. This is less than the rate
from 1990 to 2004, reflecting expected efficiency improvements in all end-use
sectors. Final oil demand rises by 2% per year and oil accounts for 77% of total
456 World Energy Outlook 2006 - FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS