World Energy Outlook 2006

over the projection period, as it did in the last three decades, from 1.1% per
year in 2004-2015 to 0.8% in 2015-2030 (Table 1.1). Population expanded by
1.5% per year from 1980 to 2004.
Table 1.1: World Population Growth (average annual growth rates, %)
1980- 1990- 2004- 2015- 2004-
1990 2004 2015 2030 2030
OECD 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4
North America 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.8
United States 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.8
Europe 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2
Pacific 0.8 0.5 0.2 –0.1 0.0
Japan 0.6 0.2 0.0 –0.3 –0.2
Transition economies 0.8 –0.2 –0.2 –0.3 –0.3
Russia 0.6 –0.2 –0.5 –0.6 –0.5
Developing countries 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.2
Developing Asia 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.9
China 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.4
India 2.1 1.7 1.3 0.9 1.1
Middle East 3.6 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.7
Africa 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.9
Latin America 2.0 1.6 1.3 0.9 1.1
Brazil 2.1 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.9
World 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.0
European Union 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
The OECD’s population is projected to rise modestly, with most of the
increase coming from North America. Population in Russia and other
transition economies is expected to decline (Figure 1.1). Mortality rates there
have been stagnant or even increasing, largely as a result of deteriorating social
conditions, unhealthy lifestyles and, in some cases, because of the spread of
HIV. Russia’s population is projected to drop from 144 million in 2004 to
125 million by the end of the projection period. The population of the
developing regions will continue to grow most rapidly, boosting their share of
the world’s population from 76% today to 80% in 2030. Mortality is falling in
most developing countries, but is rising in those most affected by the
HIV/AIDS epidemic. Nonetheless, an expected expansion of programmes to
distribute antiretroviral drugs to AIDS sufferers has led to higher average
56 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007