World Energy Outlook 2006

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100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Figure 9.12: Technology Shares in New Light-Duty Vehicles Sales in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios 2005 2015 Reference Scenario ICE gasoline Full hybrids gasoline 2015 Alternative Policy Scenario ICE diesel Full hybrids diesel 2030 Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Policy Scenario Mild hybrids Aviation Energy Trends Aviation recently overtook road as the fastest growing transport mode despite the slowdown following the events of 11 September 2001. Aviation grew at 7.3% from 2003 to 2004, double the rate of road transport. Oil demand for aviation increased from 2.9 mb/d in 1980 to 5 mb/d in 2004. International flights accounted for 62% of incremental aviation oil consumption from 1971 to 2004, and they are expected to become even more important in the future. In the Reference Scenario, the biggest increase in aviation oil consumption over 2004-2030 occurs in non-OECD countries. By 2030, OECD consumption reaches 265 Mtoe, up from 163 Mtoe today. In non-OECD countries, demand increases from 75 Mtoe to 189 Mtoe. Globally, aviation oil consumption rises on average by 2.5% per year through to 2030, reaching 454 Mtoe. Aviation oil consumption depends on three factors: growth in air traffic, fleet efficiency and, to a lesser extent, air traffic control practices. Today there are 16 800 commercial aircraft in operation. Their number is projected to grow by 3.8% per year over the Outlook period in the Reference Scenario, reaching more than 44 000 by 2030. Over half of the current fleet of planes will be retired between 2004 and 2030. As a result, four-fifths of the world’s fleet will be composed of aircraft brought into service at some point during the projection Chapter 9 - Deepening the Analysis: Results by Sector 231 © OECD/IEA, 2007 9
period. The fleet grows most rapidly in non-OECD countries, especially in China, India and Latin America (Boeing, 2005; Airbus, 2004). Growth in global aviation traffic, measured in revenue passenger-kilometres 9 , is faster than fleet growth, at 4.7% per annum over the Outlook period. This is due to improved aircraft load factors from increased aircraft occupancy and larger aircraft. 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0% Figure 9.13: Growth in Road and Aviation Oil Consumption in the Reference Scenario 1980-1995 1995-2004 2004-2015 2015-2030 Road Aviation In the Reference Scenario, efficiency is assumed to continue to improve at a rate of 1.8% per year, in line with past trends 10 . Fuel costs range from as little as 10% to as much as 30% of the total operating costs of an aircraft, depending on its age and efficiency and prevailing jet-kerosene prices. Fuel prices are, therefore, a major factor in the fuel efficiency of aircraft: prolonged high fuel prices encourage the use of newer, more efficient aircraft. The potential for technical improvements in efficiency from turbine technology, improved aerodynamics and weight reductions is estimated at 1.0% to 2.2% per year through to 2025 (Lee et al., 2001). Optimised air traffic control and more direct air routes could yield 0.4% to 1% per year improvement (IPCC, 1999). 9. Revenue passenger-kilometres, defined as the number of passengers multiplied by the number of kilometres they fly, is a commonly used measure of air traffic. 10. Alternatives to kerosene-based fuels are promising but are a long-term option. Hydrogen fuel requires new approaches to aircraft design and supply infrastructure (IEA, 2005). 232 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO © OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Will the investment come? Meeting t
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World primary energy demand in 2030
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above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Larger energy savings would require
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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would be needed (over and above tho
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Government Policies and Measures As
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over the projection period, as it d
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for heating, and faster improvement
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Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
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dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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is assumed that available end-use t
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Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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een revised down and that for coal
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Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
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Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
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Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
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Exploration and development Explora
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China United States Middle East Ind
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illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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far the largest consumer. The econo
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new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
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Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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the Organization of the Petroleum E
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A lack of reliable information on p
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Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
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mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
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Investment Cumulative global invest
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amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
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Environmental policies and regulati
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growth marginally, pushing demand d
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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The long-term rate of increase in G
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cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
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Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
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Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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construction of upstream and downst
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investment is incremental and where
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Demand Global coal use is projected
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Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
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international demand. In contrast,
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Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Consolidation of the mining industr
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� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
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Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
Page 181 and 182: production. For these reasons, we a
Page 183 and 184: mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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Page 187 and 188: Production and Trade As in the Refe
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Page 191 and 192: Notwithstanding the rates of growth
Page 193 and 194: Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
Page 195 and 196: Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
Page 197 and 198: Investment along the Electricity Ch
Page 199 and 200: Demand-Side Investment Additional d
Page 201 and 202: Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
Page 203 and 204: Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
Page 205 and 206: Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
Page 207 and 208: and another to buy a car. But there
Page 209 and 210: Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
Page 211 and 212: With the exception of China (where
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Page 215 and 216: Power Generation Summary of Results
Page 217 and 218: Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
Page 219 and 220: Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
Page 221 and 222: Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
Page 223 and 224: The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
Page 225 and 226: As oil is the principal fuel in tra
Page 227 and 228: Fuel Economy Governments intervene
Page 229 and 230: The broad categories of policy ment
Page 231: millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
Page 235 and 236: emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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Page 239 and 240: energy-intensive processes in both
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Page 243 and 244: Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
Page 245 and 246: which have much lower equipment own
Page 247 and 248: Policy Overview Policies taken into
Page 249 and 250: � Utility energy efficiency schem
Page 251 and 252: � Four-fifths of the energy and e
Page 253 and 254: Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
Page 255 and 256: These examples reflect differences
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Page 259 and 260: Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
Page 261 and 262: � Introduction of CO2 capture and
Page 263 and 264: Implications for Energy Security Th
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Page 271 and 272: Introduction Since the first oil sh
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Page 277 and 278: Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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