World Energy Outlook 2006

� Introduction of CO2 capture and storage in power generation: The
introduction of CCS in the power sector would reduce emissions by 2 Gt in
2030. Approximately 3 100 TWh of electricity would then be generated
from coal and natural gas plants equipped with CCS. Some 70% of new
coal-fired capacity and 35% of new gas-fired plants would be equipped with
CCS over the projection period. CCS in coal plants would account for more
than 80% of the captured emissions. Such a solution would be particularly
productive in China and India. Potential policies to implement this strategy
are diverse: funding for research and development, incentives for large-scale
demonstration plants, loan guarantees for new plants, performance
standards for emissions from new plants, international cooperation to
facilitate the building of new plants in the developing world and the wider
introduction of financial penalties on carbon emissions (taxes or cap-andtrade
arrangements).
If all approaches were adopted in the manner described, the power-generation
mix would change radically (Figure 10.3). The share of nuclear power in total
generation in 2030 would reach 19%, compared with 14% in the Alternative
Policy Scenario and 10% in the Reference Scenario. The share of coal would
remain large – but the share of generation from coal-fired plants equipped with
CCS equipment would reach 8%, compared with zero in the Alternative Policy
and Reference Scenarios. The share of renewable energy would also increase
sharply.
Figure 10.3: Fuel Mix in Power Generation in Different Scenarios
2004
2030
Reference Scenario
2030
Alternative Policy Scenario
2030
BAPS Case
0 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fossil without CCS Fossil with CCS Nuclear Hydro
Other renewables
260 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007