World Energy Outlook 2006

marketed gas consumption is in the industry sector, while about a quarter is used
for power generation. Gas is also used in the transport sector. Brazil had over one
million vehicles running on compressed natural gas (CNG) in 2005. 4 In some
large metropolitan areas, like São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the government is
promoting programmes to displace diesel with natural gas in city buses. The share
of coal in the primary energy mix increased from 5% in 1980 to 7% in 2004.
Reference Scenario
In the Reference Scenario, Brazil’s primary energy demand is projected to grow
at an average annual growth rate of 2.1%, from 200 Mtoe in 2004 to
349 Mtoe in 2030 (Table 16.3). This is somewhat slower than the growth of
2.5% per year from 1980 to 2004. Demand grows more rapidly in the period
up to 2015, at 2.6%. Brazil’s energy intensity continues to decline, by 0.9% per
year, as the structure of its economy progressively approaches that of OECD
countries today.
Table 16.3: Primary Energy Demand in the Reference Scenario in Brazil
(Mtoe)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004-
2030*
Coal 9.7 14.2 15.1 18.0 0.9%
Oil 57.7 84.8 108.4 141.7 2.0%
Gas 3.2 15.8 25.9 41.2 3.8%
Nuclear 0.6 3.0 6.3 6.3 2.9%
Hydro 17.8 27.6 38.0 50.0 2.3%
Biomass ans waste 41.6 54.4 70.6 89.8 1.9%
Other renewables 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 25.4%
Total 130.6 199.8 264.8 348.8 2.1%
* Average annual rate of growth.
Oil remains the dominant fuel in Brazil’s energy mix. Its share of total primary
energy supply remains broadly unchanged at around 40% throughout the
projection period. Oil consumption is expected to increase from 2.1 mb/d in
2004 to 3.5 mb/d in 2030. Some two-thirds of this increase is for transport. Oilimport
intensity – oil imports relative to GDP – fell dramatically in Brazil in the
early 1980s and in the second half of the 1990s, as a result of rapid growth in
4. www.greencarcongress.com, 17 November 2005.
Chapter 16 - Focus on Brazil 455
16