World Energy Outlook 2006

Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Energy demand (Mtoe) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total primary energy supply 8 732 11 204 13 537 15 405 1.7 1.2 –3.8 –9.9
Coal 2 183 2 773 3 431 3 512 2.0 0.9 –6.4 –20.9
Oil
of which international
3 181 3 940 4 534 4 955 1.3 0.9 –4.6 –11.1
marine bunkers 114 165 173 177 0.4 0.3 –3.8 –9.8
Gas 1 680 2 302 2 877 3 370 2.0 1.5 –4.6 –12.9
Nuclear 525 714 852 1 070 1.6 1.6 5.1 24.3
Hydro 185 242 321 422 2.6 2.2 1.5 3.2
Biomass and waste 923 1 176 1 374 1 703 1.4 1.4 –0.0 3.6
Other renewables
Power generation
56 57 148 373 9.1 7.5 8.4 26.1
and heat plants 2 800 4 133 5 246 6 134 2.2 1.5 –4.3 –11.4
Coal 1 190 1 888 2 403 2 496 2.2 1.1 –6.8 –22.8
Oil 328 292 284 210 –0.3 –1.3 –5.8 –12.6
Gas 486 875 1 121 1 311 2.3 1.6 –8.7 –22.1
Nuclear 525 714 852 1 070 1.6 1.6 5.1 24.3
Hydro 185 242 321 422 2.6 2.2 1.5 3.2
Biomass and waste 54 74 150 345 6.7 6.1 9.7 30.1
Other renewables
Other transformation,
32 49 115 280 8.0 6.9 1.8 18.9
own use and losses 878 1 064 1 261 1 439 1.6 1.2 –3.9 –9.1
of which electricity 189 263 348 420 2.6 1.8 –5.6 –13.6
Total final consumption 6 154 7 639 9 207 10 542 1.7 1.2 –3.7 –9.6
Coal 765 641 774 763 1.7 0.7 –5.9 –17.3
Oil 2 543 3 228 3 783 4 242 1.5 1.1 –4.6 –11.4
Gas 1 004 1 219 1 487 1 721 1.8 1.3 –1.9 –6.4
Electricity 826 1 236 1 682 2 121 2.8 2.1 –4.7 –12.2
Heat 177 255 280 306 0.9 0.7 –2.3 –5.4
Biomass and waste 815 1 052 1 168 1 295 1.0 0.8 –1.2 –1.6
Other renewables 24 7 33 93 14.7 10.3 40.3 54.3
Industry 2 134 2 511 3 174 3 595 2.2 1.4 –3.3 –8.6
Coal 470 499 645 662 2.4 1.1 –6.0 –17.0
Oil 550 665 789 826 1.6 0.8 –3.9 –9.1
Gas 551 564 711 847 2.1 1.6 –1.8 –4.8
Electricity 382 512 698 845 2.9 1.9 –4.3 –10.1
Heat 72 100 108 116 0.7 0.6 –0.9 –0.5
Biomass and waste 109 169 222 295 2.5 2.2 4.4 7.2
Other renewables 0 1 1 5 6.3 8.3 5.2 24.3
Transport 1 435 1 969 2 354 2 804 1.6 1.4 –4.1 –9.9
Oil 1 370 1 861 2 166 2 520 1.4 1.2 –5.2 –12.6
Biofuels 6 15 73 147 15.1 9.0 34.1 58.7
Other fuels
Residential, services
59 93 115 138 1.9 1.5 1.3 2.2
and agriculture 2 339 2 905 3 362 3 772 1.3 1.0 –3.9 –10.6
Coal 240 106 92 69 –1.3 –1.6 –6.5 –23.6
Oil 450 499 571 594 1.2 0.7 –3.5 –10.4
Gas 422 586 691 773 1.5 1.1 –2.4 –8.9
Electricity 421 689 935 1 208 2.8 2.2 –5.3 –14.3
Heat 105 154 171 190 1.0 0.8 –3.2 –8.3
Biomass and waste 696 864 870 850 0.1 –0.1 –4.6 –10.1
Other renewables 4 7 32 88 15.2 10.4 42.1 56.4
Non-energy use 246 254 317 370 2.0 1.4 –3.7 –7.6
528 World Energy Outlook 2006
© OECD/IEA, 2007