World Energy Outlook 2006

The drop in world oil demand that results from higher prices is accompanied
by an equivalent decline in world production in the Deferred Investment Case.
Unsurprisingly, OPEC oil production falls sharply in response to much lower
investment (Figure 3.14). Including NGLs, OPEC output is just over 11 mb/d
lower in 2030 than in the Reference Scenario, though, at 45 mb/d, it is still
nearly 12 mb/d higher than in 2005. OPEC’s share of world oil production
remains essentially flat at about 40% over the projection period. In the
Reference Scenario, the share rises to 48% in 2030.
The fall in OPEC production is largely offset by higher non-OPEC output,
which climbs to 64 mb/d – some 4 mb/d higher than in the Reference
Scenario and 14 mb/d higher than in 2005. Higher prices stimulate faster
development of conventional and non-conventional reserves in all non-OPEC
regions, as marginal fields become more commercial. About 1 mb/d, or 15%,
of the increase in non-OPEC output comes from oil-sands in Canada. As a
result, the share of non-conventional oil in total world supply increases from
2% in 2005 to more than 9% in 2030, compared with less than 8% in the
Reference Scenario.
Figure 3.14: World Oil Production in the Deferred Investment Case Compared
with the Reference Scenario
mb/d
4
0
–4
–8
–12
Chapter 3 - Oil Market Outlook
2015 2030
OPEC Non-OPEC: conventional Non-OPEC: non-conventional
Note: Includes NGLs, condensates and processing gains.
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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