World Energy Outlook 2006

Table 9.2 shows the changes in electricity-generating capacity. Global installed
capacity is 770 GW lower in 2030 compared with the Reference Scenario,
roughly evenly split between the OECD and the developing world. Coal-fired
capacity is reduced by 680 GW and gas-fired capacity by 409 GW. There is less
need for baseload and mid-load gas-fired capacity, but gas is still the main fuel
used in gas turbines to meet peak-load demand. Nuclear power generating
capacity is more than 100 GW, or 25%, higher in 2030. Two-thirds of this
increase occurs in OECD countries. There are about 258 GW of additional
renewables-based capacity in the Alternative Policy Scenario.
New power plants are more efficient than in the Reference Scenario, by about
two percentage points on average. The efficiency of new coal-fired power plants
exceeds 50% in 2030. Combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) achieve thermal
efficiencies approaching 65% and open-cycle gas turbines between 40% and
45%.
Distributed generation – production of energy close to where it is used – plays
a greater role in the Alternative Policy Scenario. It helps save fuel and CO 2
emissions because it reduces network losses. It also reduces investment in
transmission networks. Distributed generation in the Alternative Policy
Scenario involves greater use of combined heat and power (CHP) – mainly in
industry – and photovoltaics in buildings. CHP generation relies on gas (which
improves the economics of gas-fired generation) and biomass. Fuel cells using
natural gas have a higher market share and they are used increasingly in CHP.
Their efficiency increases up to 70% by 2030.
Electricity Mix
Total coal-fired electricity generation reaches about 10 900 TWh in 2030,
26% less than in the Reference Scenario but still 58% higher than today.
The total reduction in coal-fired generation is almost as large as the current
level of coal-fired electricity generation in the OECD. Most of the
reduction in coal-fired generation is in China, India and the OECD
(Figure 9.3). Coal nonetheless remains the world’s largest source of
electricity in 2030.
Gas-fired electricity generation is 21% lower in 2030 than in the Reference
Scenario. The share of gas in total generation drops by two percentage points.
The total reduction in 2030 amounts to 1 619 TWh. The OECD contributes
45% to this reduction, developing countries 40% and the transition
economies 15%. There are substantial reductions in CCGT capacity but
overall there is a higher share of gas-fired CHP and electricity generation from
fuel cells.
216 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007