World Energy Outlook 2006

Outlook for Nuclear Power
In the Reference Scenario set out in this Outlook, world nuclear power capacity
is projected to rise from 368 GW in 2005 to 416 GW in 2030 and to 519 GW
in the Alternative Policy Scenario. The Reference Scenario assumes that current
government policies remain broadly unchanged. Targets for nuclear power
generation, if judged unrealistic, are assumed not to be achieved. The
macroeconomic, technical and financial assumptions underlying many
countries’ targets are often different from those used in this Outlook. The
Alternative Policy Scenario assumes additional policies will be put in place to
combat global warming and to address security of supply, including measures
to boost the role of nuclear power (see Chapter 7). Governments in countries
that already have nuclear power plants are assumed to support lifetime
extensions of existing reactors or the construction of new reactors. In all
countries that have phase-out policies in place, it is assumed that reactors are
shut down later than planned to hold down CO 2 emissions, to deal with
concerns about security of supply and to postpone the need for new
investment.
The expansion of nuclear capacity may, however, face several constraints, such as
limits to global capacity to build major components of nuclear power plants, for
example pressure vessels and valves, especially for very large reactors. Similar to
GW
Figure 13.5: World Nuclear Capacity in the Reference and Alternative
Policy Scenarios
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2015
Reference
Scenario
OECD
2015
Alternative
Policy
Scenario
Developing countries
2030
Reference
Scenario
2030
Alternative
Policy
Scenario
Transition economies
360 World Energy Outlook 2006 - FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS
© OECD/IEA, 2007