World Energy Outlook 2006

Table 7.6: World Primary Natural Gas Demand in the Alternative Policy Scenario (bcm)
Difference from
Reference
2004- Scenario in 2030
2004 2015 2030 2030* bcm %
OECD 1 453 1 662 1 780 0.8% –215 –10.8%
North America 772 874 917 0.7% –81 –8.1%
United States 626 690 682 0.3% –46 –6.3%
Canada 94 113 130 1.2% –21 –14.0%
Mexico 51 71 105 2.8% –13 –11.3%
Europe 534 605 679 0.9% –96 –12.4%
Pacific 148 183 184 0.9% –38 –17.3%
Transition economies 651 740 777 0.7% –129 –14.2%
Russia 420 476 508 0.7% –74 –12.7%
Developing countries 680 1 070 1 499 3.1% –264 –15.0%
Developing Asia 245 398 584 3.4% –38 –6.2%
China 47 108 198 5.7% 29 17.1%
India 31 52 83 3.9% –7 –7.7%
Indonesia 39 64 84 3.0% –3 –3.5%
Middle East 244 368 490 2.7% –146 –23.0%
Africa 76 133 188 3.6% –28 –12.8%
Latin America 115 171 237 2.8% –52 –18.0%
Brazil 19 31 42 3.1% –7 –15.0%
World 2 784 3 472 4 055 1.5% –608 –13.0%
European Union 508 571 636 0.9% –90 –12.4%
* Average annual growth rate.
Reference Scenario, because of aggressive policies to switch away from coal for
environmental reasons. Our gas-demand projections in most regions and in
both scenarios have been scaled down since the last edition of the Outlook,
mainly because the underlying gas-price assumptions have been raised and
because of growing concerns about the security of imported gas supplies.
Production and Trade
The fall in gas production consequent upon lower global demand compared to
the Reference Scenario is borne by all exporting regions, but disproportionately
by the main exporting regions – namely the Middle East, Russia and Africa. A
significant proportion of the projected increase in output in those regions is
driven by export demand. As the need for imports in the main consuming
Chapter 7 - Mapping a New Energy Future 183
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© OECD/IEA, 2007