World Energy Outlook 2006

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2004 2015 2030 2004- Change in 2030 (%) * 2030 (%) ** Table 9.3: Transport Energy Consumption and Related CO2 Emissions in the Alternative Policy Scenario Total energy (Mtoe) 1 969 2 354 2 804 1.4 –9.9 Road (Mtoe) 1 567 1 841 2 159 1.2 –11.2 Aviation (Mtoe) 238 316 419 2.2 –7.6 Other (Mtoe) 165 197 226 1.2 –0.2 CO2 emissions (Mt) 5 289 6 265 7 336 1.3 –11.0 * Annual average growth rate. ** Compared with the Reference Scenario. total savings in 2030 of 161 Mtoe are driven by a fall of 181 Mtoe in oil consumption and an increase of 21 Mtoe in biofuels, gas and electricity use. Policies resulting in improved new vehicle fuel efficiency produce more than two-thirds of the oil savings in the Alternative Policy Scenario (Figure 9.8). Increased use of biofuels accounts for 14%, decreased aviation fuel consumption for 9% and modal shifts and reduced fuel consumption in other modes for the remainder. mb/d Figure 9.8: World Transport Oil Demand in the Alternative Policy Scenario and Savings Compared with the Reference Scenario by Source 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 2004 2015 2030 Alternative Policy Scenario Aviation savings Biofuels savings Efficiency of new vehicles Other savings* * Includes modal shift, pipeline, navigation and other non-specified. Chapter 9 - Deepening the Analysis: Results by Sector 223 © OECD/IEA, 2007 9
As oil is the principal fuel in transport and transport CO 2 emissions are closely linked to fuel consumption, emissions trends are broadly similar to the consumption trends discussed above. Projected transport-related emissions in 2030 of 7.3 Gt represent a saving of 0.9 Gt compared with the Reference Scenario. In 2015, the saving is 0.3 Gt. Slightly over half of these savings occur in the OECD countries, 40% in developing countries and the rest in the transition economies. The growth in transport emissions slows from 1.7% per year in 2004-2030 in the Reference Scenario to 1.3% in the Alternative Policy Scenario. This is driven by a halving of the growth rate in the OECD from 1% to 0.5% per annum, a fall in the rate in developing countries from 3.2% to 2.7% and a fall in the transition economies from 1.5% to 1.1%. Road Transport In the Alternative Policy Scenario, road transport energy demand grows by 1.2% per year over the projection period, reaching 2 160 Mtoe in 2030. This compares with an annual growth of 1.7% in the Reference Scenario and 2.4% per year growth in the period 1990-2004. Road transport accounts for 77% of transport demand in 2030, slightly decreasing from 80% in 2004. Road transport demand in OECD countries increases at 0.4 % per annum over the projection period, to 1 180 Mtoe. All OECD regions see demand level out around 2015. Road transport growth is driven largely by the developing countries, which grow to 893 Mtoe in 2030, a growth rate of 2.8% per annum. The principal source of growth is China, which sees demand increase at 5.6% per annum to reach 289 Mtoe in 2030, comparable to total current road transport demand in the European Union. The largest savings potential in going from the Reference Scenario to the Alternative Policy Scenario is in the OECD countries, seeing savings of 140 Mtoe by 2030, over half of which occurs in the United States and almost one-quarter in the European Union. Developing countries achieve savings of 114 Mtoe by 2030, one-quarter of which occurs in China (Fig. 9.9). Policy Assumptions and Effects These savings are achieved by policies that affect fuel type, new vehicle fuel economy and modal shift. 3 Modal shift policies are limited to a few regions, mainly the EU, Japan and China. Their impact on global fuel consumption and emissions is much smaller than that of policies influencing fuel type and fuel economy. 4 3. Vehicle ownership is assumed to remain unchanged in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios. 4. Policies whose effects are confined to a city or a local region are not quantifiable within the World Energy Model framework. 224 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO © OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Will the investment come? Meeting t
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World primary energy demand in 2030
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above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Larger energy savings would require
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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would be needed (over and above tho
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Government Policies and Measures As
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over the projection period, as it d
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for heating, and faster improvement
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Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
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dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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is assumed that available end-use t
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Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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een revised down and that for coal
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Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
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Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
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Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
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Exploration and development Explora
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China United States Middle East Ind
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illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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far the largest consumer. The econo
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new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
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Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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the Organization of the Petroleum E
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A lack of reliable information on p
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Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
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mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
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Investment Cumulative global invest
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amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
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Environmental policies and regulati
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growth marginally, pushing demand d
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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The long-term rate of increase in G
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cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
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Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
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Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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construction of upstream and downst
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investment is incremental and where
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Demand Global coal use is projected
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Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
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international demand. In contrast,
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Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Consolidation of the mining industr
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� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
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Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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Page 175 and 176: The reduction in the use of fossil
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Page 179 and 180: compared with 1.3% in the Reference
Page 181 and 182: production. For these reasons, we a
Page 183 and 184: mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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Page 187 and 188: Production and Trade As in the Refe
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Page 191 and 192: Notwithstanding the rates of growth
Page 193 and 194: Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Page 199 and 200: Demand-Side Investment Additional d
Page 201 and 202: Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Page 205 and 206: Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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Page 215 and 216: Power Generation Summary of Results
Page 217 and 218: Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
Page 219 and 220: Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
Page 221 and 222: Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
Page 223: The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
Page 227 and 228: Fuel Economy Governments intervene
Page 229 and 230: The broad categories of policy ment
Page 231 and 232: millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
Page 233 and 234: period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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Page 239 and 240: energy-intensive processes in both
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Page 243 and 244: Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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Page 247 and 248: Policy Overview Policies taken into
Page 249 and 250: � Utility energy efficiency schem
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Page 253 and 254: Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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Page 259 and 260: Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
Page 261 and 262: � Introduction of CO2 capture and
Page 263 and 264: Implications for Energy Security Th
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Page 271 and 272: Introduction Since the first oil sh
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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