World Energy Outlook 2006

Table 7.4: World Oil Demand in the Alternative Policy Scenario* (mb/d)
Difference versus
Reference
2005- Scenario in 2030
2005 2015 2030 2030** mb/d %
OECD 47.7 50.7 49.9 0.2% –5.2 –9.5%
North America 24.9 27.2 27.7 0.4% –3.1 –10.2%
United States 20.6 22.4 22.5 0.3% –2.5 –10.1%
Canada 2.3 2.5 2.5 0.5% –0.2 –8.2%
Mexico 2.1 2.4 2.7 1.1% –0.4 –12.7%
Europe 14.4 14.9 13.9 –0.1% –1.4 –9.3%
Pacific 8.3 8.5 8.2 –0.0% –0.7 –7.6%
Transition economies 4.3 4.7 5.0 0.6% –0.7 –11.8%
Russia 2.5 2.7 2.9 0.5% –0.4 –12.2%
Developing countries 28.0 35.6 44.7 1.9% –6.6 –12.9%
Developing Asia 14.6 19.4 25.8 2.3% –3.9 –13.2%
China 6.6 9.4 13.1 2.8% –2.2 –14.5%
India 2.6 3.6 4.8 2.5% –0.6 –11.3%
Indonesia 1.3 1.5 2.2 2.0% –0.2 –7.5%
Middle East 5.8 7.7 8.8 1.7% –0.9 –8.9%
Africa 2.7 3.3 4.2 1.8% –0.7 –14.4%
Latin America 4.9 5.3 5.9 0.8% –1.1 –15.8%
Brazil 2.1 2.5 2.9 1.3% –0.6 –16.0%
Int. marine bunkers 3.6 3.7 3.8 0.2% –0.4 –9.8%
World 83.6 94.8 103.4 0.9% –12.9 –11.1%
European Union 13.5 13.8 12.8 –0.2% –1.3 –9.5%
* Includes stock changes.
** Average annual growth rate.
Supply
In principle, lower global oil demand in the Alternative Policy Scenario would
be expected to result in a lower oil price than in the Reference Scenario. 9
Production in higher-cost fields mainly located in OECD countries, would be
reduced, declining even more rapidly after 2010 than in the Reference
Scenario. But concerns about the security of supply might encourage OECD
and other oil-importing countries to take action to stimulate development of
their own oil resources. For example, the UK government is currently
considering such policies (DTI, 2006) and the US Congress is considering
allowing more offshore oil exploration and giving royalty relief for offshore
9. In WEO-2004, we estimated that the oil prices would be 15% lower over the projection period in
the Alternative Policy Scenario compared with the Reference Scenario (IEA, 2004).
Chapter 7 - Mapping a New Energy Future 179
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© OECD/IEA, 2007