World Energy Outlook 2006

Mtoe
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
Figure 2.2: World Primary Energy Demand by Region
in the Reference Scenario
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
OECD Developing countries Transition economies
continues to dominate the fuel mix in India and China. By 2030, they
account together for 57% of world coal demand, up from 43% in 2004. On
the policy assumptions of the Reference Scenario, nuclear power declines in
Europe, but increases in all other regions. The biggest increases in nuclear
power production occur in Russia, Japan, Korea and developing Asian
countries. Overall, nuclear power’s share of world primary energy drops from
6% in 2004 to 5% in 2030.
Sectoral Trends
The power-generation sector accounts for 47% of the increase in global energy
demand over the projection period (Figure 2.3). Its share of primary demand
increases from 37% in 2004 to 41% in 2030. Demand for electricity-related
services, the main determinant of how much fuel is needed to generate power,
is closely linked to incomes. Nonetheless, continued improvements in the
thermal efficiency of power stations mean that the rate of growth in powersector
energy demand is somewhat lower than that of final electricity demand.
The transport sector (excluding electricity used in rail transportation) accounts
for about another fifth of the increase in global demand.
World energy consumption in end-use sectors as a whole – industry, transport,
residential, services (including agriculture) and non-energy uses – increases by
1.6% per year over 2004-2030, the same rate as primary demand. Among all
major end-use energy sources, electricity is projected to grow most rapidly, by
70 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007