World Energy Outlook 2006

Demand for oil in the Alternative Policy Scenario grows on average by
0.9% per year, reaching just under 5 000 Mtoe in 2030 (or 103.4 mb/d)
– 621 Mtoe, or 11%, lower than in the Reference Scenario. In 2030, the
share of oil in total primary energy demand is 32% in the Alternative
Policy Scenario, a drop of three percentage points compared to 2004. By
2015, oil demand will be 15% higher than in 2004, compared to 21% in
the Reference Scenario. Increased fuel efficiency in new vehicles, together
with the faster introduction of alternative fuels and vehicles, accounts for
more than half of the oil savings in the Alternative Policy Scenario. Most
of the rest comes from savings in oil use in the industry and building
sectors.
Natural gas demand continues to grow steadily over the Outlook period in
the Alternative Policy Scenario, reaching 2 877 Mtoe (or 3 472 bcm) in
2015 and 3 370 Mtoe (or 4 055 bcm) in 2030. The rate of growth over the
full projection period, at 1.5% per year, is nonetheless 0.5 percentage points
lower than in the Reference Scenario, and the level of demand in 2030 is
13% lower. Reduced gas use for power generation, resulting from less
demand for electricity and fuel switching to non-carbon fuel, is the main
reason for this difference. Demand for coal falls the most, by 6% in 2015
and 21% in 2030. It grows by only 0.9% per year over the period 2004-
2030, compared with 1.8% in the Reference Scenario. As with natural gas,
reduced electricity demand and fuel switching are the main reasons. Coal
demand still grows to 2020, but then levels off. If CO 2 capture and storage
were to become commercially available before 2030, the fall in coal demand
could be significantly less marked. The potential impact of the introduction
of CCS is analysed in Chapter 10.
Demand for energy from non-fossil fuel primary sources is 358 Mtoe, or
11%, higher in 2030 than in the Reference Scenario (Figure 7.4).
Renewables and nuclear power partially displace fossil fuel. Nuclear power
accounts for over half of the additional demand for non-fossil fuel energy,
hydro for 4%, non-hydro renewables for 22% and biomass for the rest.
Nuclear energy, which grows more than twice as fast between 2004 and
2030, is 24% higher in 2030 than in the Reference Scenario. Hydroelectric
supply also grows more quickly, but only to a level 3% higher than in the
Reference Scenario in 2030. Higher consumption of biomass results from
several different factors. Switching away from traditional biomass for
cooking and heating in developing countries (see Chapter 15) and, to a
lesser extent, improvements in efficiency in industrial processes, drive
demand down. However, this is outweighed by the increased use of
biomass in combined heat and power production and electricity-only
power plants and in biofuels for transport (see Chapter 14). On balance,
Chapter 7 - Mapping a New Energy Future 175
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