World Energy Outlook 2006

Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas Import Bills in Main Net Importing
Regions by Scenario, 2005-2030 (in year-2005 dollars)
Reference Alternative Difference Percentage
Scenario Policy Scenario difference
Oil Gas Oil Gas Oil Gas Oil Gas
$ trillion $ trillion $ trillion %
OECD 16.0 6.6 15.1 6.0 –0.9 –0.6 –6% –9%
United States 7.7 1.0 7.2 0.8 –0.5 –0.2 –6% –20%
Japan 2.4 0.8 2.3 0.8 –0.1 0.0 –4% 0%
European Union 5.9 4.8 5.6 4.4 –0.3 –0.4 –5% –8%
Developing Asia 7.0 0.3 6.0 0.5 –1.0 0.2 –14% 67%
China 3.5 0.2 3.0 0.4 –0.5 0.2 –14% 100%
India 1.6 0.1 1.4 0.1 –0.2 0.0 –13% 0%
its bill reduced the most, both in absolute and percentage terms ($500 billion
and 6% respectively). Developing country importers, in particular China and
India, will also benefit from the fall in oil import bills: China will see a decline
of $500 billion (14%) and India a drop of $200 billion (13%).
Approximately 60% of the savings in oil demand, and consequently in net
import requirements, accrue from reduced demand in the transport sector. In
all net-importing countries, the additional investment required in the transport
sector is outweighed by the savings in oil import bills. Savings in oil import
bills are already noticeable by 2015: by then, OECD countries save
$130 billion, as a result of additional investment of only $50 billion – mainly
in the transport sector.
Gas bills for the OECD and developing Asia are also lower – $400 billion
less than in the Reference Scenario over the Outlook period. All importing
countries except China will see declining gas bills. While the European Union
experiences a large reduction in absolute value (at $400 billion), China will see
an increase in its gas import bill, because of aggressive policies to switch away
from coal for environmental reasons.
The lower demand for oil and gas translates into a lower call on Middle East
and North Africa exports. This results in a 25% reduction in the region’s
cumulative oil and gas export revenues over 2005-2030, compared to the
Reference Scenario, although the region still sees an increase of 140% over
2005 levels (Figure 8.5). Other exporting countries, like Russia, will also see
their export revenues fall below the level of the Reference Scenario, although
these countries also see an increase over today’s level.
204 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007