World Energy Outlook 2006

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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Included in the Alternative Policy Scenario* (continued) Country Policy/measure Implementation in the Alternative Policy Scenario Building sector EU The Ecodesign Directive for minimum environmental Improved energy performance requirements focusing on energy and water consumption, waste generation and extension of machinery lifetime of energy-using products. efficiency in industry China The energy conservation level of residential and public buildings Improved efficiency to be close to, or reach, modern, medium-developed countries in residential and by 2020. services sector India Minimum requirements for the energy-efficient design Met and strengthened and construction of buildings that use significant amounts of energy. Transport sector US Structural reform of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Implemented standards to allow for size-based fuel efficiency. and strengthened Japan Top Runner programme sets efficiency standards for passenger cars and trucks according to the most efficient vehicle in each category. Met and prolonged EU Expansion of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Reduced aviation to other sectors, including civil aviation. Applicable to all flights departing from the EU for both EU and non-EU carriers. fuel demand China Other National standards require the car industry to limit vehicle fuel consumption, limits based on vehicle weight. Met and strengthened US EPACT 2005 provides for tax credits for the construction Increased of coal-fired generation projects, requisite on meeting efficiency share of IGCC and emissions targets. and clean coal US EPACT 2005 includes royalty relief for oil and gas production Increased share in Gulf of Mexico. of domestic oil production EU Directive on the promotion of end-use efficiency and energy services ensures that all member States save at least 1% more energy each year. Met and strengthened China The 11th 5-year plan stipulates massive restructuring Improved efficiency and amalgamation of the coal industry, seeing the closure of many small plants and increased efficiency in large plants. of coal industry * The full list of policies and measures analysed for the Alternative Policy Scenario can be downloaded from the WEO website, at www.worldenergyoutlook.org Chapter 7 - Mapping a New Energy Future 169 7 © OECD/IEA, 2007
Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Assumptions The basic assumptions about economic growth and population are the same as in the Reference Scenario. Although there may be some feedback from the new policies to economic performance in practice, this factor was considered too complex and uncertain to model. However, changes in energy investment by energy suppliers and consumers are assessed. The price for crude oil imports into the IEA and gas import prices are assumed not to change compared to the Reference Scenario. New policies that consuming countries are assumed to introduce to bolster their indigenous oil and gas production, together with the lower global demand that results from demand-side policies, would result in a drop in OPEC’s market share. This could be expected to lessen OPEC members’ ability and willingness to push for higher prices. At the same time, increased non-OPEC production would arguably not come forward without prices at least as high as in the Reference Scenario, for want of sufficient stimulus to investment. How these factors would balance is extremely hard to predict. For the sake of simplicity in this analysis, we assume that these considerations would effectively cancel themselves out, leaving prices unchanged. This assumption is consistent with an OPEC strategy that seeks to sustain a constant price by adjusting volume output as demand shifts (Gately, 2006). As in the Reference Scenario, natural gas prices are assumed broadly to follow the trend in oil prices, because of the continuing widespread use of oil-price indexation in long-term gas supply contracts. Coal import prices, however, would be affected by the different supply-demand equilibrium established in the Alternative Policy Scenario. The significant contraction of the coal market is assumed to drive down coal prices, especially towards the end of the Outlook period when coal demand falls most heavily, with coal prices falling from $62 per tonne in 2005 to $55 in 2030. Electricity prices are also assumed to change, reflecting changes in fuel inputs and in the cost of power-generation technologies. Renewables and nuclear power, which are more capital-intensive than fossil-based thermal generation options, gain market share relative to the Reference Scenario. The price of grid-based electricity increases in some regions mainly because of the higher share of renewables, many of which require financial support. No global application of a financial penalty for CO 2 emissions (carbon price) has been assumed. Technological Developments The rate of technological deployment across all technologies, on both end use and production, is faster in the Alternative Policy Scenario than in the Reference Scenario. However, technologies that have not yet been demonstrated on a commercial basis are not included in the Alternative Policy 170 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO © OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Will the investment come? Meeting t
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World primary energy demand in 2030
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above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Larger energy savings would require
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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would be needed (over and above tho
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Government Policies and Measures As
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over the projection period, as it d
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for heating, and faster improvement
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Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
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dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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is assumed that available end-use t
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Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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een revised down and that for coal
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Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
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Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
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Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
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Exploration and development Explora
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China United States Middle East Ind
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illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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far the largest consumer. The econo
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new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
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Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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the Organization of the Petroleum E
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A lack of reliable information on p
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Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
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mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
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Investment Cumulative global invest
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amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
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Environmental policies and regulati
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growth marginally, pushing demand d
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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The long-term rate of increase in G
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cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
Page 119 and 120: Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
Page 121 and 122: Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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Page 125 and 126: investment is incremental and where
Page 127 and 128: Demand Global coal use is projected
Page 129 and 130: Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
Page 131 and 132: international demand. In contrast,
Page 133 and 134: Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Page 137 and 138: � Exchange rates: A drop in the v
Page 139 and 140: Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
Page 141 and 142: TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
Page 143 and 144: generating capacity from 364 GW in
Page 145 and 146: The share of non-hydro renewable so
Page 147 and 148: y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
Page 149 and 150: phase-out policies require 27 GW of
Page 151 and 152: illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
Page 153 and 154: Increasing interconnection capacity
Page 155 and 156: (in year-2005 dollars). These refor
Page 157 and 158: Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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Page 163 and 164: � Policies encouraging more effic
Page 165 and 166: the additional policies and technol
Page 167 and 168: fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
Page 169: Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
Page 173 and 174: lower cost than in the Reference Sc
Page 175 and 176: The reduction in the use of fossil
Page 177 and 178: global consumption of biomass is 58
Page 179 and 180: compared with 1.3% in the Reference
Page 181 and 182: production. For these reasons, we a
Page 183 and 184: mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
Page 185 and 186: markets is significantly lower in t
Page 187 and 188: Production and Trade As in the Refe
Page 189 and 190: in the long run (in particular main
Page 191 and 192: Notwithstanding the rates of growth
Page 193 and 194: Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
Page 195 and 196: Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
Page 197 and 198: Investment along the Electricity Ch
Page 199 and 200: Demand-Side Investment Additional d
Page 201 and 202: Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
Page 203 and 204: Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
Page 205 and 206: Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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Page 209 and 210: Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
Page 211 and 212: With the exception of China (where
Page 215 and 216: Power Generation Summary of Results
Page 217 and 218: Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
Page 219 and 220: Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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