World Energy Outlook 2006

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Table 1.3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumptions in the Reference Scenario ($ per unit) unit 2000 2005 2010 2015 2030 Real terms (year-2005 prices) IEA crude oil imports Natural gas barrel 31.38 50.62 51.50 47.80 55.00 US imports MBtu 4.34 6.55 6.67 6.06 6.92 European imports MBtu 3.16 5.78 5.94 5.55 6.53 Japanese LNG imports MBtu 5.30 6.07 6.62 6.04 6.89 OECD steam coal imports Nominal terms tonne 37.51 62.45 55.00 55.80 60.00 IEA crude oil imports Natural gas barrel 28.00 50.62 57.79 60.16 97.30 US imports MBtu 3.87 6.55 7.49 7.62 12.24 European imports MBtu 2.82 5.78 6.66 6.98 11.55 Japanese LNG imports MBtu 4.73 6.07 7.43 7.59 12.18 OECD steam coal imports tonne 33.47 62.45 61.74 70.19 106.14 Note: Prices in the first two columns represent historical data. Gas prices are expressed on a gross calorific-value basis. All prices are for bulk supplies exclusive of tax. Nominal prices assume inflation of 2.3% per year from 2006. The average IEA crude oil import price, a proxy for international oil prices, was $51 per barrel in 2005. It is assumed to average slightly over $60 per barrel (in real year-2005 dollars) through 2007, and then decline to about $47 by 2012. It is assumed to rise again slowly thereafter, reaching $50 in 2020 and $55 in 2030 (Figure 1.3). In nominal terms, the price will reach $97 in 2030 assuming inflation of 2.3% per year. Prices of the major benchmark crude oils, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent, will be correspondingly higher. In 2005, the average IEA crude oil import price was $5.97 per barrel lower than first-month WTI and $3.90 lower than dated Brent. Prospects for oil prices remain extremely uncertain. The price assumptions described above are significantly higher than assumed in the last edition of the Outlook. This revision reflects the continuing recent tightness of crude oil and refined-product markets, resulting, to a large extent, from tight product-upgrading capacity. This is reflected in rising crude oil/light product price differentials and falling crude oil/heavy fuel oil differentials since 2003 (Figure 1.4). Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Russia, Africa and Latin America have contributed to the upward pressure on prices. Some commentators and investors predict further price rises, possibly to $100 per barrel for crude oil. Market fundamentals point to a modest easing of prices as new capacity comes on stream (see Chapter 12) and demand growth tempers. But new geopolitical tensions or, worse, a major supply disruption could drive prices even higher. Chapter 1 - Key Assumptions 61 © OECD/IEA, 2007 1
dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Average IEA Crude Oil Import Price in the Reference Scenario dollars per barrel 100 80 60 40 20 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Real dollars (2005) Nominal Figure 1.4: Crude Oil Price and Differentials to Oil Product Prices 25 20 15 10 5 0 –5 –10 –15 –20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Gasoline differential Gasoil differential WTI crude oil spot price (right axis) Jet fuel differential Heavy fuel oil differential Note: Product price differentials are averages, calculated using product prices on the northwest Europe, New York and Singapore spot markets and representative crude oil prices. 2006 is year to the end of August. Source: IEA databases. 62 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 dollars per barrel © OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
Page 11 and 12: John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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Page 15 and 16: T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
Page 17 and 18: Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
Page 19 and 20: 8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
Page 21 and 22: 13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
Page 23 and 24: List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
Page 25 and 26: 6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
Page 27 and 28: 9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
Page 29 and 30: 13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
Page 31 and 32: Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
Page 33 and 34: 11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
Page 35 and 36: Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
Page 37 and 38: World Energy Outlook Series World E
Page 39 and 40: half of the increase in global prim
Page 41 and 42: Will the investment come? Meeting t
Page 43 and 44: World primary energy demand in 2030
Page 45 and 46: above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
Page 47 and 48: Larger energy savings would require
Page 51 and 52: would be needed (over and above tho
Page 55 and 56: Government Policies and Measures As
Page 57 and 58: over the projection period, as it d
Page 59 and 60: for heating, and faster improvement
Page 61: Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
Page 65 and 66: is assumed that available end-use t
Page 67 and 68: Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
Page 69 and 70: een revised down and that for coal
Page 71 and 72: Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
Page 73 and 74: Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
Page 75 and 76: Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
Page 77 and 78: capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
Page 79 and 80: Exploration and development Explora
Page 81 and 82: China United States Middle East Ind
Page 83 and 84: illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
Page 87 and 88: Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
Page 89 and 90: far the largest consumer. The econo
Page 91 and 92: new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
Page 93 and 94: Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
Page 95 and 96: the Organization of the Petroleum E
Page 97 and 98: A lack of reliable information on p
Page 99 and 100: Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
Page 101 and 102: mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
Page 103 and 104: Investment Cumulative global invest
Page 105 and 106: amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
Page 107 and 108: Environmental policies and regulati
Page 109 and 110: growth marginally, pushing demand d
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Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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The long-term rate of increase in G
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cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
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Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
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Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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construction of upstream and downst
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investment is incremental and where
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Demand Global coal use is projected
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Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
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international demand. In contrast,
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Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Consolidation of the mining industr
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� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
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Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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