World Energy Outlook 2006

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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefaction Plants to be Commissioned by 2010 (Continued) Country Operator Project name Status Online Capacity Cost (Mt/year) ($ million) Qatar Qatargas II (QPC, Ras Laffan (T1 & T2) Construction 2008 15.6 7 600 ExxonMobil & Total) Qatar RasGas (QPC Ras Laffan (T5) Construction 2008 4.8 2 000 & ExxonMobil) Qatar Qatargas III (QPC Ras Laffan (T3) Engineering 2009 7.5 6 500 & ConocoPhillips) Qatar Qatargas IV (QPC Ras Laffan (T4) Engineering 2010 7.9 7 000 & Shell) Qatar RasGas (QPC & Ras Laffan (T6 & T7) Construction 2010 15.8 7 000 ExxonMobil) Russia Shell Mitsubishi Mitsui Sakhalin II Construction 2008 9.6 12 000 Russia Tambei LNG Yamal Proposed 2010 3.5 1500 Trinidad & Tobago Atlantic LNG Pomit Fortin (T5 &T6) Proposed 2010 6.0 5 000 Venezuela PDVSA Shell Mariscal Sucre LNG Proposed 2010 4.8 2 700 Yemen Yemen LNG Bal Haf Yemen LNG Construction 2009 6.2 3 000 Chapter 12 - Current Trends in Oil and Gas Investment Planned, engineering and construction 166.8 73 350 Proposed 59.2 25 900 World 226.0 99 250 Note: Proposed projects could slip beyond 2010 but are included here for the sake of completeness. Source: IEA database and analysis. 339 12 © OECD/IEA, 2007
approved by the US Maritime Administration. 8 However, construction work has begun on only five of them. Another three projects have been approved in Canada and three in Mexico. Terminals now being built will add about 65 bcm/year of capacity by 2010 to the 60 bcm/year of capacity at the five existing terminals, all of which are located in the United States (IEA, 2006b). If all the approved projects go ahead, capacity could exceed 200 bcm/year. In Europe, 16 new terminals are under construction or planned at a total cost of $10 billion. Capacity is expected to increase by 110 bcm per year by 2010. Investment in the LNG chain has been stimulated by high gas prices in the main consuming regions, dwindling indigenous production and rising demand. Despite the very large amounts of capital needed for each project, the interval between LNG project approval and completion has generally been short compared to pipeline projects of comparable size, which generally take a decade. In part, this is explained by the fact that most projects have been led by international oil companies with access to ample finance, strong credit ratings and extensive experience of managing large-scale energy projects. Falling costs relative to pipelines have boosted interest in new LNG projects. However, rising engineering, procurement and contracting costs – caused in part by the recent surge in demand for related services and materials – are already leading to delays in sanctioning and completing some projects, and to decisions not to proceed with others. Nonetheless, even with escalating costs, the number of proposed LNG projects continues to grow more rapidly than the number of long-distance pipeline projects. Gas-to-Liquids Plants A small but growing proportion of total oil and gas industry investment is going to gas-to-liquids plants, which convert natural gas into high-quality oil products. There are three existing GTL plants in operation: Shell’s 15-kb/d plant in Bintulu Malaysia, PetroSA’s 25-kb/d plant in Mossel, South Africa and the joint venture 34-kb/d Oryx plant built by Qatar Petroleum (QP), Chevron and Sasol in Qatar, which was commissioned in early 2006. Another 34-kb/d plant is being built by Chevron and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation at Escarvos in Nigeria. Two further GTL plants are at an advanced planning stage: the Shell/QP Pearl plant in Qatar, with a final capacity of 140 kb/d, and Sonatrach’s 36-kb/d plant at Tinhert in Algeria. Other GTL plants planned for Qatar are on hold pending a review of the optimal extraction policy for the giant North Field. The GTL projects currently under 8. Information on the status of North American LNG projects is available from the FERC website (www.ferc.gov). 340 World Energy Outlook 2006 - FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS © OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Will the investment come? Meeting t
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World primary energy demand in 2030
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above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Larger energy savings would require
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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would be needed (over and above tho
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Government Policies and Measures As
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over the projection period, as it d
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for heating, and faster improvement
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Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
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dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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is assumed that available end-use t
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Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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een revised down and that for coal
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Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
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Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
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Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
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Exploration and development Explora
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China United States Middle East Ind
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illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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far the largest consumer. The econo
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new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
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Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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the Organization of the Petroleum E
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A lack of reliable information on p
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Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
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mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
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Investment Cumulative global invest
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amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
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Environmental policies and regulati
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growth marginally, pushing demand d
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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The long-term rate of increase in G
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cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
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Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
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Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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construction of upstream and downst
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investment is incremental and where
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Demand Global coal use is projected
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Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
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international demand. In contrast,
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Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Consolidation of the mining industr
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� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
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Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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Page 315 and 316: $0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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Page 331 and 332: Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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Page 339: Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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Page 345 and 346: Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
Page 347 and 348: Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Page 387 and 388: Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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