World Energy Outlook 2006

international demand. In contrast, output of steam and coking coal in the
European Union, where costs are high, declines as remaining subsidies are
phased out in most countries. But EU brown-coal production, used almost
exclusively in the power sector, remains more or less flat throughout the
projection period on the assumption that subsidies are retained. The share of
brown coal in total EU coal production on a volume basis rises from 68% in
2004 to 87% in 2030. Adjusted for energy content, total EU coal production
falls by 38%. Globally, cumulative coal production to 2030 amounts to only
22% of current proven reserves.
1980 2004 2010 2015 2030 2004-
2030 *
Table 5.2: World Coal Production in the Reference Scenario (million tonnes)
OECD 2 045 2 075 2 274 2 318 2 538 0.8%
OECD North America 793 1 085 1 230 1 250 1 361 0.9%
United States 753 1 009 1 139 1 150 1 267 0.9%
Canada 37 66 79 85 77 0.6%
OECD Pacific 144 363 436 467 564 1.7%
OECD Asia 37 3 2 0 0 n.c.
OECD Oceania 107 360 434 467 564 1.7%
OECD Europe 1 108 627 609 601 614 –0.1%
Transition economies 849 572 630 653 584 0.1%
Russia n.a. 260 304 306 301 0.6%
Developing countries 929 2 913 3 791 4 357 5 737 2.6%
Developing Asia 796 2 596 3 445 3 980 5 272 2.8%
China 620 1 960 2 673 3 074 3 927 2.7%
India 116 413 494 586 937 3.2%
Indonesia 0 132 172 202 263 2.7%
Other 60 90 106 118 145 1.8%
Latin America 11 67 83 94 130 2.6%
Brazil 5 5 7 8 12 3.0%
Africa 120 248 261 280 332 1.1%
Middle East 1 2 2 2 3 1.9%
World 3 822 5 559 6 696 7 328 8 858 1.8%
European Union n.a. 597 556 524 477 –0.9%
* Average annual rate of growth.
n.a. = not available; n.c. = not calculable.
130 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007