World Energy Outlook 2006

survivorship for people living with HIV than previously projected.
Consequently, population growth rates are slightly higher in some regions than
in the last Outlook.
Middle East
Transition
economies
Latin America
OECD
Rest of
developing Asia
India
Africa
China
Figure 1.1: World Population by Region
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600
millions
1990 2004 2030
Macroeconomic Factors
The energy projections in the Outlook are highly sensitive to underlying
assumptions about GDP growth – the main driver of demand for energy
services. Energy demand has tended to rise broadly in line with GDP growth
in the past three decades or so, though the ratio has gradually declined over
time. Since 1990, each 1% increase in GDP (expressed in purchasing power
parity terms) 2 has been accompanied by a 0.5% increase in primary energy
consumption. Between 1971 and 1990, the corresponding increase was 0.7%.
Demand has grown less rapidly relative to GDP in recent years largely due to
warmer weather in the northern hemisphere, which has reduced energy needs
2. All GDP data cited in this chapter are expressed in year-2005 dollars using purchasing power
parities (PPPs) rather than market exchange rates. PPPs compare costs in different currencies of a
fixed basket of traded and non-traded goods and services and yield a broadly-based measure of
standard of living. This is a more appropriate basis for analysing the main drivers of energy demand.
Chapter 1 - Key Assumptions 57
© OECD/IEA, 2007
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