World Energy Outlook 2006

CHAPTER 10
GETTING TO AND GOING BEYOND THE
ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
HIGHLIGHTS
� Achieving the results of the Alternative Policy Scenario depends upon a
strong commitment on the part of governments urgently to adopt and
implement the policies under consideration. Considerable hurdles need
to be overcome, not least policy inertia, opposition from some quarters
and lack of information and understanding about the effectiveness of the
opportunities which are open.
� The policies and measures in the Alternative Policy Scenario would
avoid the release into the atmosphere of some 70 Gt of CO2 over the
period 2005-2030. If action were delayed by ten years, with
implementation starting only in 2015, energy trends would deviate
from the Reference Scenario much less by 2030. One result would be
that the cumulative saving in emissions by 2030 would be 2%, rather
than 8%.
� The implementation of only a dozen policies would result in nearly 40%
of avoided CO2 emissions by 2030. Giving priority to energy security
would result in an almost identical choice of policies. Both objectives
require a cut in demand for fossil fuels. The policies that, cumulatively,
would yield the greatest reduction in that demand are those that achieve
big gains in the efficiency of electricity generation and transport and the
use of renewable energy and nuclear power.
� Public understanding, private-sector support and international co-operation
are needed to enable governments to adopt and implement the more
stringent policies required to make the Alternative Policy Scenario a reality.
The conditions have to be created that will enable developing countries to
adopt efficient equipment, technologies and practices.
� A still more ambitious goal – capping CO2 emissions in 2030 at today’s
levels – could be met through a set of technological breakthroughs,
stimulated by yet stronger government policies and measures. A Beyond
Alternative Policy Scenario (BAPS) Case shows how CO2 emissions
could be cut by 8 Gt more than in the Alternative Policy Scenario. But
the scale and the speed of the necessary technological change represent a
new order of challenge.
Chapter 10 - Getting to and Going Beyond the Alternative Policy Scenario 249
© OECD/IEA, 2007